Saudi Arabia’s Radical Changes Is Doomed To Failure And Its Destruction Is Imminent

An analysis of the situation in Saudi Arabia By Walid Shoebat 

When it comes to Saudi Arabia, its a desert which practically swims on oil. But oil isn’t just an export of the Saudi economy; oil is the Saudi economy. Without oil and the Haj, Arabia has no reason to exist. It can only survive if oil is $100 or more a barrel. At $50 it can breath by holding its head out of the oil, but anything less than that it drowns in its oil and dies in the desert.

Saudi Arabia is becoming bankrupt. What Prince Mohammed bin Salman is doing by his recent arrests is similar to Turkey’s Erdogan plan: generating a sense that a coup is being carried out to end it all with his own coup and rid the state from all opponents. This is true whether a coup was actually planned didn’t matter. The Crown Prince is simply emulating President Erdogan of Turkey and is arresting princes and ex-minsters who constituted the Saudi elite seizing desperately needed $800 billion of dollars of their money and refilling his country’s coffers while working to modernize the stagnating Saudi economy and wean it off its near-total reliance on oil.

But will this work?

Saudi eating whole stuffed camel · Fish inside chickens inside lamb inside camel!

Currently oil prices are at $56.72 and if this continues till 2021, Saudi Arabia’s financial reserves will become bankrupt.

And besides oil continuing at such prices, the House of Al Saud has many enemies both within and outside its borders and low oil prices will embolden these enemies to act against the regime to complete its destruction. This is especially true that Iran (Shiite) and Turkey (Sufi) are both potential rivals for regional domination.

But what will cripple Saudi Arabia is simple: the increase in US crude inventories after raising its oil exports. Since the US lifted a 40-year oil-export ban in 2015 with modest increases in oil exports in 2016 this becomes the writing on the wall. Now the U.S. is going full throttle in 2017. This will cripple Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s lovers are ditching her and there is no way to stop it.

During the early 1970s when the US produced and consumed lots of oil it was forced to import more from OPEC states which produced 55% of the world’s oil. This gave OPEC the lead to control prices. This was especially true when the Yom Kippur war erupted in 1973 and the US supported Israel, OPEC went on high-gear raising oil prices sending the world into shock.

It is War (not peace) is what oil producing countries (like Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia) needs to survive.

Since 2013, the US weaned itself off OPEC producing more oil than it imported doubling since 2010 to even exporting US crude oil increase 50 percent more each year.

Today OPEC produces only about 40% of the global supply, 15% lower than its previous 55%. Today the US is in the top three producers in the world.

Lower oil prices does not hurt the U.S. since it does not solely depend on oil as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia. The U.S. economy, unlike Germany, China and Japan, does not depend on exports to survive. In a decade or two Saudi Arabia will be finished.

These days we see visions. For Turkey its 2021. Nations like Norway, for example, plans to ban the sale of fossil fuel-burning cars by 2025, and the UK and France are starting bans in 2040. This is why Saudi Arabia has a 2030 dream to not be dependent on oil.

But OPEC no longer hold the keys, the Saudi-Russian attempt to raise oil prices failed. The price of oil is now subject to market forces rather than any concerted action by oil exporters.

Saudi Arabia tried everything to sustain itself and nothing worked to bring oil prices except one last-ditch effort: war with Iran.

So who will strike first?

The two middle east superpowers are on a collision course and is why the Saudi kingdom ranks as the world’s second largest importer of military equipment.

But Iran is not easily conquered. While Iran has always been weaker than the Russian and Ottoman empires,  it always survived for one main reason: geography.

Iran’s size and its mountainous terrain made military attacks against it extremely difficult and dangerous. Iran was able to afford a decade long war with Saddam Hussein costing it 1 million casualties, yet it could not be defeated.

But for Iran to strike first, it will face pressure from Iran’s partner, Russia. Other superpowers will interfere, especially China which is the largest oil importer.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia must strike first. However, the United States late last year halted the sale of air-dropped and precision-guided munitions. It argued that Saudi military needs better trained forces in their targeting and use of these weapons.

The other problem is that war is costly and Saudi Arabia cannot afford it. An almost two-year long military campaign in Yemen put Saudi Arabia through a test and a wakeup call. The war was supposed to be a cakewalk but it turned into a quagmire for the kingdom.

Then Saudi Arabia had internal social issues where cutbacks on subsidies, increased utility prices, reduced spending on education and social services. The state employs two thirds of the citizens which is a tricky business considering Al Saud conflicts with its country’s religious establishment which demands social change and increasing international association with Wahhabism.

King Salman and Prince Mohammed have a full plate for 2017. For them and the Al Saud family the core issue is survival. With no credible alternative to the Al Sauds and the Middle East and North Africa’s recent experience of popular protest producing civil wars, jihadism and increased repression, Saudis are unlikely to revolt. They will however demand a greater say and greater accountability, concepts the government has so far countered with increased suppression and authoritarianism.

So what did Saudi Arabia do to solve this dilemma? it created a scenario of “rumors of war”. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, rounded up and detained dozens of Saudi wealthiest officials earlier this month. On the same day Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri abruptly announced his resignation on television from the Saudi capital, Riyadh, saying Iran and the Hezbollah movement were interfering in his country’s affairs. This month, Saudi Arabia charged that a missile fired at its capital from Yemen was an “act of war” by Iran.

But all this effort to spread “rumors of war” didn’t work. Oil prices continued to decline.

And if the last few years it was tough for Saudi Arabia, 2017 was much worse. None of its attempts seem to work. It faces domestic financial crisis that is forcing the country to restructure its economy.

So Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying another last ditch effort to reconstruct Saudi Arabia and modernize it.

Yet Saudi Arabia is not ready for industrialization which requires a dynamic culture shift. His first move was to allow women to drive which represented a direct attack on the clerics upsetting the applecart. So Prince Salman created a sense that there are threats of a coup against the royal family.

It is similar to Erdogan’s plan: generating a sense that a coup is being carried out to end it all with his own coup and rid his opponents whether one was actually planned didn’t matter.

The Crown Prince then arrested princes and ex-minsters who constituted the Saudi elite.

But unlike Erdogan’s success, we predict that the bin-Salman coup will fail. Why? The assets are mostly held abroad and thus in different legal jurisdictions stashed in foreign tax havens. All that and whatever real estate assets (major hotel buildings) if made available for sale to foreigners, this would mean that foreigners would get the title and this would not be easy to swallow for the Muslim Wahhabist elites.

Nothing has worked for Saudi Arabia. Even Saudi Arabia’s attempts to control its enemies failed. With a ceasefire in Syria orchestrated by Russia and Turkey significantly weakened Saudi-backed rebel groups and strengthened Iran’s key Middle East ally, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

Saudi Arabia’s only hope of influencing events in Syria is to support the Muslim rebels. But the fall of Aleppo (Saudi key allies) and the Sunni rebel’s last major urban holdout, threatens to reduce the anti-Assad resistance to a largely rural insurgency. This doesn’t bode well with the Wahhabi agenda.

Then there is also the religious tensions. Saudi Arabia is the custodian of Islam’s two holiest cities, Mecca and Medina supervising the Haj (pilgrimage to Mecca) for some 80 Muslim countries. Last year, Saudi Arabia and Iran failed to reach an agreement for the 2016 pilgrimage, leaving the Islamic Republic without a quota for pilgrims and even the kingdom’s management of the Haj greatly challenged.

But Saudi Arabia has a rival enemy: Iran. While the Middle East ‘experts’ thought that Iran will soon be neutralized by either Israel or the U.S., they failed to understand America’s lack of comprehending the Middle East. Unlike Saudi Arabia, its neighbor Iran is cleaver. During the 2003 Iraq war it convinced the United States to invade Iraq and rid the region from the ruling Sunni power under Saddam, a key ally of Saudi Arabia and the main obstacle in Iran’s expansion program.

Iran convinced the U.S that Iraqis would welcome the Americans with open arms. This fed the existing U.S. desire to invade Iraq. But after the Americans entered Iraq, Iran began to plan. To rid Iraq from the Americans (who inadvertently converted Iraq into a Shiite state), Iranians began to help many factions in Iraq to resist the Americans. Iraq then became a nightmare for the Americans. Iran then used its influence in Iraq to divide and paralyze the country after the Americans withdrew turning it into its Shiite ally. This hurt Saudi Arabia.

While the U.S. cannot easily be defeated, Americans are easily manipulated. Experts then thought that Saudi Arabia still has Turkey on its side. But this view was debunked as we see Turkey striving for better relations with Iran. Turkey is ditching Saudi Arabia and partnering with Iran. Iran was the first nation to cleverly condemn the coup in Turkey. Iran’s decision to stand with Erdogan cemented the new relationship and resulted in Turkey realizing that Tehran is its most reliable friend in the region. Even the U.S. supported Erdogan in combatting the supposed coup in Turkey. But Saudi Arabia’s attempt to create a coup is not gaining any support.

We have constantly been predicting and warning about all these developments. The recent Turkey-Iranian alliance will change the course of events in the region and push Saudi Arabia toward a complete isolation. Americans had thought that the conflict was a Sunni-Shiite divide. But Sunni Turkey acted as a unifier between Sunnis and Shiites. The Iranian revolutionary leaders are Azeri Turks and have kinship with the Ottomans. The Turks also do not hold the same animosity towards Shiite ideology, as does Wahhabist Saudi Arabia. When it comes to the Arabs, Turkey holds a historic long memory against Saudi Arabia’s aid to oust the Ottomans during the Sharif Hussein revolt (1916-1918) when the Turks shelled Mecca and crushed the Black Stone. If Turkey did not mind shelling the Kaaba, why would it mind the end of Al Saud?

Iran can’t afford loosing its relationship with Turkey. Turkey and Iran have a common interest in preventing an independent Kurdish nation. The more the United States supports the Iraqi Kurds there will be a greater danger of an Iranian-Turkish alliance, which is what we project, will happen. Iran and Turkey are not divided as most have thought, they are locked into an alliance.

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  • bubba

    thanks for the update shoebat foundation.
    it looks like what you are saying is that iran goaded the U.S. to invade iraq and good ole george bush took the bait. why does that not surprise me.
    that looked like a lot of food for one person. wonder how camel taste…like chicken???

  • Finally.

    Unfortunately, conservatives are idiots. They are falling for the deception that Muhammad bin Salaman have spun. The city he is proposing, NEOM (a mish-mash of two words, “Neo” from Latin meaning new, and “M” from the Arabic word for future), happens to be on the Red Sea. It happens to overlap the route ancient Israel took when they escaped from Pharaoh, wandered in Saudi Arabia, received the laws from God at Jabal al-Lawz, before turning north and beginning the invasion of the lands of Canaan to fulfill God’s oath to Abraham.

    MBS (the crown prince) is reportedly going to be crowned as king sometime next week. Erdogan already told MSB, “What is ‘moderate’ Islam?” and slammed MBS.

    I covered all of this last week in two blog posts of my own. http://atrevorsjournal.blogspot.com/2017/11/contemplating-on-saudi-arabias-new.html

    So, yes, Saudi Arabia is doomed.

    • RodK1975

      Exactly, Trevor… everyone is doomed… the world is chomping at the bit to work with the new King MBS… they’ll be charmed by his fantastic promises of moderate Islam and his changing Sharia Law in Saudi Arabia… investors will stand in line to get in on the money making possibilities in NEOM… nothing good will come of this…

      • You and Grandmere gets ton of credit for finding the articles.

        It’s going to get wilder here on out.

      • Стефан Евгений

        Rod, this was on Russian TV. I think SA is a ginormous big bag of camel shyte ready to blow up on every one.

        • RodK1975

          I agree, brat… we’ll just have to wait and see what good our Father brings out of this situation… I look into MBS’s eyes and I see ambition… this guy is dangerous, most of all because he’s clever and he’s power hungry… he knows what he wants and he’s going for it…

          • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

            I see the same thing, and in his youth and impetuous nature, he may drag the whole region into a larger war that will have terrible and incalculable events come from it.

    • Paul

      What does he mean by “The more the United States supports the Iraqi Kurds there will be a greater danger of an Iranian-Turkish alliance”? Would you care to explain?

      • Walid explained it in his article.

        Turkey has long complained, bitterly, that the American gov’t are supporting the YPG, an offshoot of the PKK (declared as terrorist organization by the State Department), and that is simply unacceptable to Erdogan. Iran, like Turkey, opposes a Kurdish territory and that is pushing Turkey and Iran toward each other.

        So, America is helping along that union.

        • Paul

          Thanks

          • No problem.

            One thing to bear in mind is the Kurds are the descendants of the Medes, formerly a powerful people who were stronger than the Persians, and today, the role is reversed. Walid has stated so many times, it is why the bear (that is the Persians) are rising on one side without the aid of the Medes.

            The Kurds are also fierce fighters as evident by their decades long war for independence against Turkey and whooping ISIS. The success of the Kurds in clearing out ISIS along the Turkey’s borders were the reason why Turkey finally sent in their military to “clear the corridor of terror” along the borders. It was rubbish because mountain of evidences points that Turkey long supported ISIS.

            The Kurds were hoping their advances against ISIS would gain more international support to lean on Turkey to allow the Kurds to finally have a homeland for their people. Turkey and Iran have other ideas. That’s not to say that Turkey and Iran hates the Kurds. Far from it.

          • Paul

            What do we know? What if the two woman in Zec 5:5-11 carrying what is possibly a pure form of Islam from Arabia after its demise are actually going to Kurdistan? The Kurdish inhabited area spreads over turkey, Syria, and Iraq. I think Assyrian Christians in these areas in time will get assimilated in to Kurdish people in time as ISIS is probably forcing them away from ISIS areas. From Kurdish controlled Turkey- Syrian border in northern Syria (YPG?) (also near biblical Haran where Rebeca, Leah and Rachel are from) it is only 63 km from Gobekli Tepe, a pre-flood temple where biblically abominable scarifies were made in northern part of Shinar.

          • You could present the same case for Mecca being the wicked woman in the basket being transported to Karabala where there is another holy site of Islam that rarely gets mentioned these days as Mecca is prophesied by Islam to be destroyed for her haughtiness.

          • Paul

            IN that case , what do you propose are the 3 kingdoms to be uprooted ?

      • Its because a Kurdish state will carve a swath of land from both Turkey and Iran which both will lose tons of territory. Its that simple.

    • Taurnil Oronar

      Conservatives are not alone in that category. Not sure why singling is needed as the net of deception is very wide.

      • It is a given that liberals fall for it. My aim was show that conservatives are falling for the deception.

        • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

          That’s a larger concern that both you and I and the Shoebats all share.

          • ChristianAmericanCrusader

            Indeed!

      • ChristianAmericanCrusader

        True, the net of deception is very wide spread. We are seeing evil being pushed by BOTH the far left/right wing groups and organizations. However, what most people don’t even realize today is the fact that the ‘right’ are heavily advancing n*zism-racialism-eugenic ideology-paganism using such labels as ‘conservatism’, ‘family values’, thru the ‘counter-jihad’ and ‘national social’ movement groups. They also often even use ‘Christian’ labels to help push their same evil agendas on the masses.

        In otherwords, it’s the Devil and his stealth deceptions that most people DON’T see that concerns those who do.

    • Стефан Евгений

      Even Russian companies are getting in on NEOM. Russia needs their resources not that shyte hole in the desert.r

  • Cuzick

    Thanks Abouna for keeping us informed. It’s good to hear from you.
    What a blessing to see Father and Son working to expose and destroy the works of the devil . Great work in revealing the antiChrist from the east and his minions rising up in western culture to unite with him in the days ahead. I pray God continues to give you and your family the eyes to see and ears to hear what the Spirit is saying in this hour.

  • Julie LaBrecque

    Cannot thank you enough for your tireless research and analysis – this article is like my favorite steak – filet, medium rare – a small steak compared to a T-bone, no fat like a ribeye, easier to chew than a sirloin – to quote Goldilocks, ‘Just right’.

    • Paul

      I would be happier boning / slicing in an abattoir than what he is doing. Criticizing the govt. like Civilians do.

      “As it is, there are many parts, but one body. The eye cannot say to the hand, “I do not need you.” Nor can the head say to the feet, “I do not need you.” On the contrary, the parts of the body that seem to be weaker are indispensable”

      —- 1 Corinthians 12:22-22

  • Ceirwyn

    I’ll add that what oil the US imports comes from South America, because it’s cheaper than shipping oil across the ocean.

    Will also add the Saudis who have been rounded up in this whole thing are the ones on friendly terms with Soros tools: the Bush family, Clinton family, Obama.

    • bubba

      there is a big boom of oil production here in the states. texas, where i live is experiencing great growth in oil production. drive into midland texas and all you will see for miles and miles is oil related businesses one right after the other. oil rigs a go go. we are now exporting our oil around the world we have so much production.

      • Ceirwyn

        Yeah, people forget the US is a nation with a lot of oil of it’s own.

  • ChristianAmericanCrusader

    Excellent detailed analysis/update. Definitely, we see much more clearly that the Turkey-Iran Alliance continues to form. Everything continues to remain well on track for Saudi Arabia(The Harlot of Babylon) to be toast.

    • Grandmere

      And SA can see the death of the petrodollar. People are beginning to pile into cryptocurrency. They think it’s brilliant. When people pile on, run the other way. It will be made worthless in a nanosecond.

      • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

        ”When people pile on, run away”… No truer words were spoken about that my friend:-). Or, as Our Lord said; “Broad is the way to destruction”.

      • ChristianAmericanCrusader

        Very true.

  • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

    Yes, this will not end well, and the Turks and the Persians will again become primary in the Muslim world; and it is they who will determine what Islam is and is not.

  • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

    Good article Mr. Shoebat, it is appreciated, and I can only marvel at those who still hold an American Protestant-centric view on the End Times, as your analysis of Scripture has been spot on about Iran and Turkey all along.

  • susan

    “We have constantly been predicting and warning about all these developments.” Indeed you have. I’ve always wondered who would strike first in the war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Thank you for answering that. As I look around the world, i can’t help but recall Jesus’ words to us regarding the last times… “Remember Lot’s wife”. So will the cities of Sodom be destroyed with fire from the sky once again? Will God send His angels to save the kin of Abraham once more? Will the “wives” disobey God all over again? Jesus also mentions the times of Noah. Is it any wonder then, when the Shoebats write articles about evil, that they must write about ALL evil and not just those particular evils which tickle our ears?

    Thank you Walid, for finding the time to share your prophetic insights of the latest happenings in Saudi Arabia. I know we have to keep patient as both the evil and the good continue to increase and ripen in the world, but it sure ain’t easy. I keep wanting to hurry it along before we go back to sleep. 😉

  • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

    The ‘Singularity’ happened long ago. It is not for nothing that the Apostle calls Satan ”the prince of the power of the air, that works in the children of disobedience”, the air being the medium through which all of today’s electronic wizardry courses through, a means through which the Devil and his fallen angels can manifest in this physical world quite easily. But when the first Alleged ”AI” demonstrates consciousness, it will not be a consciousness ‘evolved from a Machine’, because that’s quite impossible, but a resident demon.

  • Стефан Евгений

    Russia today is not so dependent on oil exports as it once was. The big trend NOW agriculture exports.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMwwSldfGhw
    Russia is feeding China

    Why did the Saudi king go hat in hand begging for deals from Russia? Russia can out last the low oil prices, SA can’t.
    I think making deals with that ole snake Saudi Arabia will bite Russia on the arse.

  • racarrera

    It was good to read this. Finally, something to dig into.

  • lewjac3

    Great read, it’s seems to me that the Persians are in the same situation as the Saudis, both are dependent on crude

    • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

      Which is their excuse they make for using nuclear technology, because Iran is undergoing a population boom, and modernizing, so they say they need Nuclear power plants for keeping up with electrical demand from business and private citizens…

      • lewjac3

        Boom, were all dead

  • OrthodoxChristianAmerican

    Don’t sell Russia short, I wonder if this is another wedge to bring back into favor the stupid ”Magog=Russia” nonsense?

    Nor do you understand Dugin I think, because if you did, you’d see that Erdogan does not want too strong of a revived Russia, even in a ”Eurasian” context like Dugin does, even though Dugin favors better relations between Turkey and Russia.

    Russia balances Iran against Saudi Arabia, and we balance Saudi Arabia against Iran. It’s power politics. Both Russia and the USA have good relations with Israel as Israel does not have good relations with Iran, and only slightly better ones with Saudi Arabia.

  • I seriously doubt it.

    I keep going back to the four beasts that Daniel saw coming out of the sea. The first three beasts were readily understood by him, but the fourth beast was completely different, fiercer than the first three. In the Apocalypse, John saw the fourth beast that had the body dominated with a body of the leopard, having feet of the bear, and mouth of a lion.

    What Daniel’s fourth beast and John’s beast had in common were the number of horns, 10 in total, so I am inclined to agree strongly with Walid’s interpretation that Turkey and Iran will join together in union. Walid also repeatedly mentioned how Iran are heavily Turkish in origin, and it makes it easier to see the union of the two regional heavyweights.

    The vision of Daniel 8, to me, is the Westernized view of the schism between the Sunni and Shiite. We are seeing the rapid coming togetherness of Turkey and Iran which is blowing that interpretation of Daniel 8 out of the water.

  • Darren Neufeldt

    While I haven’t been as active here as I would have liked, I appreciate the insight that was given. Thank you

    • Grandmere

      I have been hoping to see you here, Darren. I have been praying especially hard for you lately. Wish I had your e-mail address.

      • Darren Neufeldt

        Hi Grandmere, I too have been praying hard for you and Susan. I hope all is well? To get my email you have to take my last name and add Two Thousand and Two in numerical values at gmail.com.

        • susan

          Hi Darren. Thank you for your prayers. 🙂
          I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

          • Darren Neufeldt

            You’re welcome, and Have a wonderful Thanksgiving yourself.

          • susan

            Thank you Darren. 🙂

  • David W
  • I’ll wait till gold Rush episodes make a trip to Saudi and see what they find.

    • bubba

      as a small time gold prospector, that show is my favorite.

  • johny man
  • johny man
  • johny man

    lets see if youre sincere.you only call out muslims but never jews who john chrysostom and the fathers called demons.youre against homosexual agenda yet its a jewish movement.you wont bite the hands that feed you will you?

  • johny man

    [Jews are] murderers of the Lord, assassins of the prophets, rebels against
    God, God haters, . . . advocates of the devil, race of vipers, slanderers, calumniators,
    dark-minded people, leaven of the Pharisees, sanhedrin of demons,
    sinners, wicked men, stoners, and haters of righteousness. (St. Gregory
    of Nyssa; in Lazar 1991a, 47)
    If you call [the synagogue] a brothel, a den of vice, the devil’s refuge, Satan’s
    fortress, a place to deprave the soul, an abyss of every conceivable disaster
    or whatever else you will, you are still saying less than it deserves. (St
    Jerome; in Michael 1994, 120)
    [Judaism is] ever . . . mighty in wickedness . . . when it cursed Moses; when
    it hated God; when it vowed its sons to demons; when it killed the prophets,
    and finally when it betrayed to the Praetor and crucified our God Himself and
    Lord. . . . And so glorying through all its existence in iniquity. (Hillary of
    Poitiers; in Michael 1994, 110)
    Although such beasts [Jews] are unfit for work, they are fit for killing . . . fit
    for slaughter. (I.II.5)
    [the Synagogue] is not merely a lodging place for robbers and cheats but also
    for demons. This is true not only of the synagogues but also of the souls of
    the Jews. (I.IV.2)
    Shall I tell you of their plundering, their covetousness, their abandonment of
    the poor, their thefts, their cheating in trade? (I.VII.1) (St. John Chrysostom,
    Adversus Judaeos)

  • susan

    lol. I wonder how many fish went into how many chickens into the camel. Honestly, there’s nothing appetizing to me as I study that stuffed roasted camel. It looks like it’s sitting on its haunches. I DO wonder how they roasted it….