German nationalism is rising, and there are potential signs that historically point to war appearing again. However, there are obstacles which still exist before a German “fourth reich” could be realized. One of the major obstacles is the presence of US troops in Germany and the accompanying military bases, of which there are three dozen and are heavily concentrated in the southern part of Germany.
The Trump administration has made clear that they want Germany to “pay their fair share”, but what does this really mean? The US physical presence in Germany is not merely about extending a global American imperial presence, but also about ensuring that a fourth reich does not re-emerge, as it certainly could. Call the Germans what one may, but Germany is a nation known for efficiency and ruthlessness, perhaps better than any other nation in the world. Indeed, there is a greater threat to be concerned about from a resurgent Germany than there is from Islamic terrorists, the latter who are bound to the purse-strings of the US, while the former is on her own the fourth largest economy in the world with only 80 million people in her borders.
The Germans are not “weak cucks” as so many describe them, but a very wealthy people who make lots of guns, have a history of warfare, and are very strategic. As I have said before, the German government did not let the “migrants” into Germany by way of any failure on their own, but what appears to be an intentional plot to destabilize her internal politics in order to create the conditions for a resurgence of nationalism and a future reich.
Trump promised to put “America first,” but since the earliest days of his presidency he has done the opposite, and there is no way to hide this. Indeed, putting “America first” must necessarily mean keeping major powers that could challenge American supremacy from rising to power. While it is true that Germany is not “more powerful” than the US, she could certainly put up a good fight, and if she were to enter into an alliance with Turkey (her historical ally since the days of the Byzantine Empire) and Russia (recall the Molotov-Ribbentropf pact), it would be highly unlikely that the US, for all of her “tough talk” and big weapons, to win a war against such a scenario.
Will the US remove her troops and close her bases in Germany? One is not sure. But according to a recent statement, Trump has ‘provoked’ Germany by suggesting he will relocate US troops in Germany to Poland:
Exasperated at Germany’s stubborn refusal to meet its commitments to Nato, the U.S. is actively considering redeploying its considerable military presence in the country to Poland.
“It is actually offensive to assume that the US taxpayer must continue to pay to have 50,000-plus Americans in Germany, but the Germans get to spend their surplus on domestic programs,” Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador in Berlin told Germany’s DPA Press Agency.
President Trump previously alluded to this possibility, when in June he told a press conference that 1,000 troops for a planned new deployment in Poland would be drawn from those stationed in Germany.
The U.S. currently has around 35,000 service personnel in the country, along with some 17,000 civilian support staff.
Despite repeated pledges from Chancellor Merkel and successive German defence ministers to move towards the Nato defence spending target of 2% of GDP, German military spending remains far short at just 1.3% of GDP this year. A pledge by Mrs. Merkel to increase spending to 1.5% by 2024 appears to have been undermined when Olaf Scholz, the finance minister, cut planned increases in this year’s budget.
The U.S. mood towards Germany was not improved by the country’s recent refusal to take part in a multinational naval task force to defend shipping from Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
Georgette Mosbacher, the American ambassador in Warsaw, reinforced the call for the troops in Germany to be transferred to Poland when she Tweeted that “Poland meets its 2% of GDP spending obligation towards Nato. Germany does not. We would welcome American troops in Germany to come to Poland,”
The economic benefits to local communities of such a large force, as well as to Germany as a whole, will be greatly missed by that country. (source, source)
While Germany may feign outrage before the world if such a thing were to happen, internally she could not be happier, as if such a military move was made by the US, it would be a major step towards realizing the next reich.
Do not be quick to praise either Trump or to laugh at Germany. Trump has shown himself to have repeatedly betrayed the “conservative” base he associated himself with as recently has the last five years in spite of having persistently held a generally “Democrat” position for most of his life. Many people have given him a very fair chance to prove his worth, and he has been found painfully lacking in his promises. Germany is an ancient land with a very deep culture and self-awareness, and while World War II was a very horrible ordeal, she certainly has not forgotten who she is. Her nation is very strong, and knowing that past behavior is the best indicator of future actions, her silence is not one of peace, but a warning before the storm of war comes anew.