Trump is likely going to win, but he is in real trouble. He has seriously enervated his base, and that process has not stopped. According To the New York Times by way of MSN News, even older voters are disappointed with Trump over his reponse to the COVID-19 situation.
The coronavirus crisis and the administration’s halting response to it have cost President Trump support from one of his most crucial constituencies: America’s seniors.
Donald Trump standing in front of a piano: Officials said they attributed the shifting views of older voters at least in part to President Trump’s coronavirus briefings.© Doug Mills/The New York Times Officials said they attributed the shifting views of older voters at least in part to President Trump’s coronavirus briefings.
For years, Republicans and Mr. Trump have relied on older Americans, the country’s largest voting bloc, to offset a huge advantage Democrats enjoy with younger voters. In critical states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, all of which have large older populations, Mr. Trump’s advantage with older voters has been essential to his political success; in 2016, he won voters over the age of 65 by seven percentage points, according to national exit poll data.
But seniors are also the most vulnerable to the global pandemic, and the campaign’s internal polls, people familiar with the numbers said, show Mr. Trump’s support among voters over the age of 65 softening to a concerning degree, as he pushes to reopen the country’s economy at the expense of stopping a virus that puts them at the greatest risk. (source)
Older voters are his most consistent bloc. If Trump loses them, even going up against an easy target such as Joe Biden, it will still be difficult for him to win on natural terms.
If anything, the 2020 election is shaping up to be a very interesting source of entertainment.