Will Russia Turn Against Lukashenko?

A recent article from Pravda says that Russia will not attempt to fulfill the ‘wishlist’ of Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko any longer.

he difficult period caused by the coronavirus pandemic showed who really is an ally of Russia and who only makes such statements.

This was announced by a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation Bogdan Bezpalko .

According to him, Russia will reduce the subsidization of the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.

“We can no longer pay for the formal declaration of ourselves as an ally. Moreover, we can’t pay for it against the background of obvious and hidden threats that have been emanating from Belarus lately,” Bezpalko explained. (source)

Germany and Russia are the two great powers who veritably control the European landmass. With the global push towards a third world war however, while the two nations will historically ally and carve up Eastern Europe before going to war with each other, many of the Eastern nations have already taken their sides. The overwhelming number of alliances, desired or not, have been with Germany, and almost none with Russia, and those which are with Russia are often forced by Russia herself. Examples of this include Abkhazia and Eastern Ukraine, as both have been “allied” under the heavy influence of Russian military force.

The reason for so much support of Germany is not a love of Germany, but the memories of the USSR, which economically, culturally, and politically abused those who were east of the “Iron Curtain” either by direct annexation to the USSR or by satellite influence to a point that the memory of the abuse is still fresh and the abuse so great that if the nations are forced to pick a master, they are tending towards Germany as a comparatively “kinder” one.

President Aleksandr Lukashenko is considered to be the “last dictator” in Europe, as he has held onto power since the fall of the Berlin Wall and shows no desire to give it up. Belarus is a very poor and suffering nation, and while she has talked of alliances with Russia, she has also ran away from Russia because Russian “power” in her nation means the loss of her autonomy, not to mention to revive the abuses that she went through during the Soviet years, which is something that she does not want to go through again.

Lukashenko is no fool (like all of these leaders) and he has played the game between east and west well, but given the recent heating up of tensions he has been clearly siding with the Western world more than Russia, as evidenced by his direct purchasing of oil from the US instead of Russia, conflict over a waterway between Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and his open upstaging of Moscow with his own victory day parade, Russia has started to attempt to put her “foot down” on Belarus, which may result in future military force being applied against her.

It is not an impossibility that Russia will now attempt to force Belarus into submission for her own political agenda. The Russian-owned website OilPrice.com in a recent article declared that as a result of Lukashenko purchasing oil from the US, he has put himself on a “collision course” with Russia.

Russia has no real economy outside of oil exports, with tree exports and weapons manufacturing for third-world despotic leaders in second or third place (depending if one considers AIDS-infected prostitutes in brothels around the world a legitimate form of export), but she is attempting to revive the USSR nevertheless. Her lack of economic strength is just one part, however, of the complete evisceration of her nation that has taken place. Her population has and continues to significantly drop, her cultural is fundamentally changing due to mass migrations from Central Asia, and there is no real future for most people. Russia is truly a dying nation, and no amount of LARPing from Putin can change this, although it is certain that he will fight to the last to try to revive his openly-admitted Stalinesque vision of a new Russia under his rule.

But will Putin be able to do this? Twice now Russia has in the last century been able to repel invasions from Germany, but will she be able to make friends enough with Germany to keep her out? And will Russia possibly be overrun by Germany this time? It almost happened in World War II, for in spite of Soviet propaganda, it was a miracle from God that brought the failure of Operation Blau at the Battle of Stalingrad, which would have forced a Russian surrender.

Belarus is at a geographical and geopolitical crossroads. She could easily go with Russia, and historically has tendencies towards her, but given the last century, is now turning towards its seems at least Germany and Western Europe. This is not an accident- after all if so many Russian Slavs actively seek to leave Russia never to return, with many heading to Western Europe, and given how so many people from eastern bloc nations want to go to the same place, why would they want to ally with Russia? it does not make sense.

Russia’s desire to assert control over Belarus is rooted in a legitimate fear of her future, because she wants to rise again like Germany, but lacks most of the ability to successfully do so, an in the next World War may find herself fighting for her life with no one to help her.

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