There may be trouble for Trump in the future as the US manufacturing index has hit a record decline amid the virus chaos according to Marketwatch.
The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index plunged a record 34.4 points to -21.5 in March, the regional Fed bank said Monday. Economists had expected a reading of 4.8, according to a survey by Econoday. This is the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2009.
What happened: The new-orders index fell 31.4 points to -9.3 in March. Shipments fell 20.6 points to -1.7. Labor-market indicators weakened. The average workweek fell to -10.6 in March from -1. The number of employees fell to -1.5 from 6.6. Optimism about the six-month outlook dropped to 1.2 from 22.9.
Big picture: This is one of the first readings of the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the economy and the results are not pretty. The worst seems yet to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Sunday that he expects negative GDP growth in the second quarter.
What are they saying? “The impact of the coronavirus was still in its early stages at the time of this survey. Nonetheless, the early indications suggest that the impact was substantial,” said T.J. Connelly, head of research at Contingent Macro. (source)
Trump needs to win the white working classes in critical manufacturing states such as Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. If he loses them, there is a strong chance he may lose the election, even if it is to Biden.
Many of these people are poor and have been affected by the virus. They are out of work, are strapped with debt, and are in a bad situation all around.
This virus is just making everything worse for their already difficult, on-edge lives
Trump’s responses in the next several months to this crisis could determine his victory or loss in 2020.
As I have said before, things for Trump overall have been to his favor, but his response to this virus manufactured crisis could determine if he has a second term or not.
If anything, what appears to be happening is a transition of the nation to socialism. In other words, people are turning to the government and asking them for a bailout just like what happened with companies in 2007, but now it is the common man.
We are witnessing a fuller transition of the zeitgeist, which is, how much of the public treasury will be “given” to “the people?”
No matter who wins the 2020 election, it will likely only be socialism.