The Russian Vice Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev recently said that if a civil war breaks out in Syria, the Syrian people will have to deal with it on their own:

“If the people of Syria continue to require our support, it will be provided. But it is unlikely – in the conditions of a full-scale civil war. The Syrians will have to cope with it themselves,”

Kosachev foresees more violence in Syria:

“There is too much conflict of interests and too much opposition of forces. Including openly terrorist groups. And therefore the hardest is yet to come,”

Assad has been toppled, and the Middle East will spiral further towards a nightmare on earth. This is not just about the fall of Assad, but the revival of Turkish — Ottoman — power in the Middle East. Israel has deployed within the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, pointing to “the possibility of gunmen entering the buffer zone”. But there will be a power greater than the rebels right next door to Israel, and that is Turkey. We are not saying that Turkey will make itself explicitly seen as an imperial power in Syria by tomorrow or even next year (although I wouldn’t be surprised if the latter did happen), but it will eventually be the case in the future that Turkey will be an imperialist power ruling over Syria. For now, Turkey will be working to control Syria through its proxies. Regional and international affairs expert Hakam Amhaz, says that “the regime was more like an Iranian axis within the region, and its fall means the end of an era of direct Iranian influence in Damascus … The vacuum that the Iranian regime will leave in Syria will push countries like Türkiye to compete for influence.” Former advisor to the Turkish Prime Minister, Cahit Toz, says that “The fall of the regime means a decline in Iranian influence in Syria, which represents an opportunity for Turkey to expand its role in northern Syria.”

ISIS and other Islamist groups will take this opportunity to pursue their own violent goals, and it won’t be shocking at all if the violence spills over into countries like Lebanon and Iraq. Maher Farghali, an expert on extremist groups, he warns of “the possibility that extremist groups such as ISIS and Al-Nusra will exploit this moment to reposition themselves, which threatens the stability of neighboring countries such as Iraq and Lebanon.”

The question is, is Russia and Iran going to give up on Syria? So, it looks like there is going to be factional violence, with differing groups killing each other and then also the Kurds having to fight Turkey’s proxies in Syria. The director of the Saqr Center for Strategic Studies, Muhannad Azawi, warned against “plans to divide Syria into international or sectarian areas of influence … Arab countries must pressure to preserve the unity of Syrian territory.”

Researcher Ali Mamouri recently wrote:

Now, with the victory of its Syrian opposition allies, Turkey is expected to expand its political and military influence in Syria, causing more challenges for the Kurdish minority fighting for its autonomy.

Turkey will be seen as the force of stability for Syria.

Syria will continue to be divided, and there will be bloodshed, just as there was horrendous killing in Iraq after Saddam was overthrown, and in Libya after Gaddafi was toppled. This anti-Shiite/anti-Iranian sentiment is already manifesting itself, as a mob attacked the Iranian embassy soon after Assad was toppled, as we read in euronews:

Angry Syrians stormed the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Sunday morning after President Bashar Assad was ousted in Damascus. Posters of the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani that had adorned the embassy were torn down and offices in the embassy building were destroyed.

Russia wants to secure its naval basse in Tartus and its airbase in Hmeimim, as we read in Erem News:

Syrian military sources said that Russian military forces in transferred air defense systems, such as the S-400 Triumf and S-300 systems, and the Tor-M2 system, from the Baniyas countryside area to areas closer to its naval bases in Tartus and Hmeimim on Saturday.

The Russians and the Turks are going to be vying over control for Syria, and this is why the Russians want to secure their air and naval bases there. As the same report says, “Russia is working to reposition its forces and military assets to safer locations within the areas still under its control, especially near its main bases in Hmeimim and Tartus, on the Syrian coast. Turkey and Russia will maintain diplomacy in Syria, but not forever, as the two historical enemies will eventually clash since their interests are antithetical. Turkey wants to revive its Ottoman Empire, and Russia wants to maintain its access into the Mediterranean. Turkey taking control over Syria would mean the end of this access and Russia will not allow it.

Expect more bloodshed and chaos in Syria. There’s going to be times of diplomacy, celebration and calm, but it will inevitably end in a nightmare.