A recent report has declared that 40% of nations will see civil unrest this year.
Almost a quarter of the world’s countries witnessed a surge in protest and unrest last year and that figure is set to rise further in 2020, according to a new study.
There are 195 countries in the world, if the Vatican and Palestine are included, and a newly released index of civil unrest has claimed that 47 of those states witnessed a rise in civil unrest in 2019.
The data model, published Thursday by socio-economic and political analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, has also predicted that in 2020, the number will balloon to 75 countries.
The U.K. consultancy identified Hong Kong and Chile as the two flashpoints suffering the largest increases in unrest since the beginning of 2019. Neither country is expected to find peace for at least two years, according to the research.
ther areas now considered hotbeds of civil protest include Nigeria, Lebanon and Bolivia. Beyond these three, countries dropping into a category labeled “extreme risk” include Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe.
Since the previous index release, Sudan has overtaken Yemen to become the highest risk country globally.
Sudan has been locked in crisis since ruler Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in April. The country has been beset by protests and killings as military forces battle pro-democracy supporters to control the country.
Conflict in Yemen has been raging since 2015 as Shia and Sunni Muslim forces wrestle for power. (source)
There has been talk of a third world war following the Trump incident with Iran, and this report only fuels speculations of such a conflict in the near future.
Based on my analysis, I am not concerned about that right now. Note I said right now, because the conditions are not yet ready. There is still the entire 2020s that is yet to come. However, this does not mean that one should relax, because a major conflict, probably in about ten years, is coming.
I remember not just ten, but twenty years ago clearly. Looking at how the time has passed, it is sometimes hard to believe, but it is very real, and nothing has fundamentally changed in terms of how the world works, or the tides of history. The difference is that the weapons that are available today are more dangerous and that is amplified by how close the world is now tied together by means of advanced communication techniques.
A major conflict will be devastating for the entire world, and the civil unrest that builds up to it is only a part of it reaching its natural, and inevitable culmination.
Some of the things that we expect to see, this year and going forward, will be a rise in nationalism, and intensification in the conflict in Ukraine, the continual remilitariation of Turkey with a special emphasis on a “new Turkey” coming in or around 2023, the rise of Hindu nationalism, further conflict with China, and most importantly, a decline in the European economy (Germany for all purposes, as they are the heart of Europe’s economy).
As I noted, a major thing to watch for will be changes in the German economy. As the son of the former governor of Nazi occupied Poland, Germany will be OK so long as they are making money, but if they stop, things will change instantly, and the ‘refugees’ will be the main target.
In his words, “Don’t trust us.” Germany is going to be critical to watch, for far from being a “weak” and “dead” nation, Germany has the efficiency, history, money, and ability to transition almost overnight from a standard manufacture-and-export model to a military economy with the ability to rapidly expand and turn into a massive army.
America is also going to experience major economic problems, probably around 2023, which will be in time for the next election and likely will reflect the problems that took place in 2007 and 2008. This time it will be worse.
Right now is NOT the time to rest. It is the time to pay down debts, work hard, and save up as much as one can. There will come a point when this is no longer possible as it was in the past, and when that comes, then will it not just be to 40% of nations that see civil unrest, but likely the whole world, including the US.