Haaretz recently reported that Mohammad al-Julani, the rebel leader in Syria, “will have to deal with serious domestic opponents, including rival militias, such as the ones in Daraa and Suweyda, which have now closed ranks with him in the effort to topple the regime, but also with the Kurdish forces, which quickly seized more territory in the country’s northeast over the weekend.” The same report says:
Kurdish forces took over Deir el-Zour and the Bukamal border crossing and have been waging serious confrontations in the past couple of days with Turkish forces, which, in turn, are now trying to take control of Manbij, one of the important Kurdish outposts west of the Euphrates River.
A union between the Kurds and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces will require Al-Julani to compromise between the Kurds’ desire to protect their autonomy and Turkey’s wish to push them 20-30 kilometers (about 12-18 miles) away from the border.
Will Turkey agree to “its militia” giving the Kurds a win at the expense of what it defines as a threat to national security? Will Al-Julani, who is seeking to surround himself with overwhelming national support, agree for Turkey to continue to wage war against the Kurds while he strives to form a governing coalition with them?
Its a good question: how can Syria be united under a rebel bloc when Turkey (the external power who drove the toppling of Assad) is against the Kurdish nationalists who have been fiercely against Turkish expansion in northern Syria? Is the new government going to unite all factions, including those who are a threat to Turkey? And now, ISIS is also rising up as we read in the article:
Moreover, the Syrian rebellion in 2011 set the ground for ISIS’ conquest of parts of Syria and Iraq, and there are already reports that ISIS in Syria has resumed activity in some areas where the regime retreated. If that is the alternative, Assad’s remaining in power might have still been considered as a reasonable price to pay.
With the rise of various Islamist factions, there is bound to be chaos and bloodshed. In such a situation, Turkey will see this violence as an opportunity to justify further expanding its military presence.