Argentina has a history of economic and political crises. In what appears to be a growing political crisis, Argentina may be on the edge of yet another collapse as the government has moved to impose capital controls, a generally-recognized sign of a serious crisis:
Argentina’s government imposed capital controls to halt a slump in foreign currency reserves and the peso that has pushed the country to the brink of default.
The central bank set a limit of 5 days for exporters to repatriate foreign currency, while institutions will need authorization of the bank to buy dollar in the foreign exchange market, except in the case of foreign trade, according to a statement from the bank. Individual Argentines will be limited to dollar purchases of no more than $10,000 a month.
The announcement comes as Argentina’s currency crisis spirals out of control. About $3 billion drained out of foreign currency reserves on Thursday and Friday alone as the government struggled to repay short-term debt and slow the drop in the peso. The country risks exhausting its net reserves, which stand at under $15 billion, within weeks if it keeps losing money at this pace.
Central bank lost $2 billion on Friday alone
The peso collapsed more than 25% last month after primary election results showed the market-friendly government has little chance of retaining power in October’s polls. Interest rates soared as the central bank tried to roll over debt, culminating Wednesday in a decision to delay payments on $7 billion of bills coming due this year.
The opposition had called for currency controls, saying the government was in “virtual default.” Central bank reserves have slumped to $54.1 billion from $66.4 billion the day before primary.
The re-imposition of currency controls will be an embarrassment for President Mauricio Macri, who came to office over three years ago pledging to free up the economy after years of state intervention. While money originally flooded in the country, the expanding fiscal and current account deficits eventually unnerved investors, prompting the peso to lead emerging-market currencies declines last year.
Now, faced with an electoral defeat in October, Macri has given up trying to restore investor confidence and has instead resorted to the policies he had criticized his predecessors for imposing.
As well as pushing back maturities on local short-term debt on Aug. 28, Argentina also said it will ask holders of $50 billion of longer-term debt to accept a “voluntary reprofiling.” It also plans to renegotiate payments on $44 billion it has borrowed from the International Monetary Fund.
Fitch Ratings now classifies Argentine debt as RD (restricted default); Standard and Poor’s as CCC-; and Moody’s as Caa2. Credit default swaps are pricing in more than a 90% chance of a fully-fledged default within five years.
Argentina’s century bond has slumped since the primary election
Here is a list of some of the measures announced today:
Central bank sets deadline for repatriation of foreign earnings for exporters
Repatriation must be made within 5 days of payment or within 15 days of receiving the shipping permit in the case of grains, whichever is quickest
Other exporters have 180 days from the date of the shipping approval
Argentines can only buy as much as $10,000 a month, or transfer the same amount to a foreign account
Limit is $1,000 in the case of non-residents
All companies must request permission to distribute dividends abroad or to buy dollars in the foreign exchange market
They can’t buy dollars for savings purposes
No restrictions for dollar purchases aimed at completing foreign trade transactions
No limits to companies and savers that want to withdraw dollars in cash from their accounts
What will be interesting to see is the reaction of Pope Francis, as he is from Argentina, and there are allegations of a questionable history with his relationship to the echelons of power in the Argentine government.