I have stated that based on current social trends, there is a strong chance that Trump will be re-elected in 2020. However, this is subject to a series of conditions, and they could, although unlikely, change. However, the possibility is serious enough that they could enough to turn Trump into a one-term president.
The reality is that based on demographic and social changes, America is leaning more towards a permanent Democrat-only voting bloc. This is most evidenced by the popular vote as well as the electoral college system. The popular vote consistently puts Democrats ahead of Republicans in the national elections. The electoral college system has been the Republican savior, but even that is going away.
To explain briefly, there are certain states that almost always go one way or the other in modern times. The Democrats have the clear advantage because at they tend to control the urban centers of power, they force entire states to move with their decisions. This is why, for example, many parts of California or Illinois may vote “Republican,” but it is Los Angeles or Chicago that decides the direction of how the state votes.
In the case of the Democrats, they already control by this method or by simple majority (some states, like Massachusetts, already vote Democrat majority regardless of urban or rural locales) a near-guaranteed 182 electoral college votes (CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA), or 67% of all electoral college votes needed to win. Republican carry a mere 121 votes (AK, AL, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY), or 44%.
Due to the demographic changes, states that would have voted Republican historically are now tending to vote Democrat. Their votes, while potentially Republican, cannot be guaranteed any more. These four major ones are GA, IA, NC, OH, and TX, which together make up 87 votes. Keep in mind that if the Democrats were to win all of these states, they win the national election, guaranteed.
Some states are Democrat-inclined, but are not guaranteed. These are CO, ME, MN, NH, NM, NV, and VA. But at 51 votes total, if the Republicans took all of them- which is not likely- it would still put them nine votes short of what the Democrats are veritably guaranteed immediately for votes.
Then there are the “swing” states, many of them former “Republican” states that can go either way, although are more are heavily becoming “Democrat” states and the trend will like1y solidify with time. These are AZ, FL, MI, PA, and WI. At 86 votes total, if the Democrats take all of them, they are two votes shy of winning the election, and if the Republicans take them all, they are only 25 electoral votes ahead of the Democrats before any further details are concerned for them.
The Democrats have the clear advantage, and for the Republicans the strategy is clear- either way they need to take at least TX and hope on picking up all of “swing states” plus a few “Democrat” inclined states, or they need to pick up TX and FL and almost all of the “swing states”. Either way, if the Republicans lose TX, they are done as a party, and if they lose more than three swing states due to demographic changes, they are also done as they will not be able to get the votes to win a presidental election ever again.
Trump’s 2016 election was pretty clear, but still close based on demographics, as his victory invovled him picking up TX and FL along with AZ, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, and WI. If he lost AZ and FL, or GA, NC, and WI, or even just TX by herself with nothing else, Hillary Clinton would have won.
The election was quite close.
Trump won in 2016 based on multiple premises, of which as many have documented regardless of political affiliation he has miserable failed to follow through on. Trump has instead acted more in line with a “MIGA” instead of “MAGA” approach, showing a clear favor to the Israeli lobby. A lot of people are upset at his failure to make good on his promises even in small ways.
Trump has done much to enervate his base. This is tremendously problematic for him for re-election. His actions that seem erratic or disjointed also have not helped him. However, there are two major points that could destroy his 2020 election bid and give it to the Democrats no matter how clownish their “nomination” process may seem right now.
First is the issue of vaping:
rump administration officials said on Wednesday they would move toward a ban on the sale of most flavored e-cigarettes, at a time when hundreds of people have been sickened by mysterious vaping-related illnesses.
Sitting in the Oval Office with Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of Health and Human Services, and Dr. Ned Sharpless, the acting Food and Drug Administration commissioner, President Trump acknowledged that there was a vaping problem, and said, “We’re going to have to do something about it.”
Mr. Azar said that the F.D.A. would outline a plan within the coming weeks for removing most flavored e-cigarettes that are not tobacco products from the market.
The move follows increasing pressure by lawmakers, parents and educators, who have been overwhelmed by the popularity of vaping among youths, and felt powerless to keep e-cigarettes out of their schools. The latest proposal may include a ban on menthol and mint flavored e-cigarettes, which have been the among the most popular flavors for the industry. Research has shown that these flavors are very appealing to youths and to nonsmokers, although some vaping advocates note that they hold great appeal for smokers who want to use e-cigarettes to quit.
The first lady, Melania Trump, also attended the White House meeting. “She’s got a son,” the president said of their teenage child, Barron. “She feels very strongly about it,” he said of Mrs. Trump’s interest in the vaping issue. (source, source)
If Trump bans vaping “flavored” smoke, you might as well kiss large parts of his midwestern and southern bloc bases goodbye.
Vaping can involve smoking if tobacco is used. However, most people who “vape” even with flavored tobacco are not looking to “get teenagers addicted,” and if they are teens who smoke, it is not because of flavored tobacco. It is because they want something that tastes good.
Smoking may be considered a “vice,” and while it can be harmful, it is a “vice” primarily of the poor people and something that is a source of comfort and relaxation for them. Smokers are already harassed by the government enough, and vaping has provided a relief for many of them.
There is no need to ban “vaping” at all save for a manufactured crisis to justify political goals, which is what appears to be going on. But does one think that poor people care about political games? Many of them just want to pay their bills and try to survive on declining wages amidst a stagnant economy and lots of debt, and this is a source of comfort them. This is not “helping” people, but taking away their source of comfort as much as it would be taking away a rich man’s credit line or bank card.
One cannot expect the many poor people- most of them white -in the midwest and south, who vape for this reason, to continue to support the man who took away one of their few sources of comfort.
The second crisis that may destroy his presidency is the gun issue.
As I have stated before, Trump has proven himself to be worse than Obama on this issue, for while Obama made threats, he gave gun rights, and while Trump promised to defend them, he has taken them away. Obama was a greater supporter of the second amendment than Trump has been.
Former Senator Ted Cruz recently warned that if Trump makes any “compromise” with Democrats on “gun control”, especially over “background checks,” it could cost him the election:
Sen. Ted Cruz is warning that President Donald Trump making a deal with Democrats on gun legislation might cause conservative voters to stay home in 2020.
“If Republicans abandon the Second Amendment and demoralize millions of Americans who care deeply about Second Amendment rights,” the Texas Republican said, “that could go a long way to electing a President Elizabeth Warren.”
“We’re going to see record-setting Democratic turnout. The only element missing is demoralizing conservatives so they stay home. I hope we don’t do that,” Cruz told reporters at a Thursday breakfast. (source, source)
It is to be seen what Trump will attempt to do. However, Trump is a failure when it concerns “gun rights,” which are something that people on “the left” want to take away, and those that “the right” has entrusted with defending, their “leaders” clearly do not care because they are of the same philosophy as “the left” but with the appearance of being “different,”
The next move is in Trump’s hands. If he decides to follow through with both of these things, then in addition to his already disliked decisions by his own party and base, there is a strong chance that he may not win in 2020.