The United States government predicted that China will invade Taiwan by 2027, as we read in Nikkei:
With China continuing military drills around Taiwan, preparing for a possible attack on the self-governed island has gained urgency in Japan.
U.S. military analysis has predicted a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027. But rising tensions between Washington and Beijing following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island could push Chinese President Xi Jinping to act even faster.
Japan will face a set of complex challenges in mounting an effective response if China makes a move against Taiwan now.
The first issue is recognizing a Chinese attack on Taiwan as an “existential threat” to Japan. This step is necessary for the Self-Defense Forces to provide assistance to the island.
So far the government has only signaled that it will make an “objective and rational decision.”
Under the current legal framework, Japan can exercise its right to collective defense when a close ally comes under attack, posing an existential threat to Japan.
“Beat your plowshares into swords
And your pruning hooks into spears;
Let the weak say, ‘I am strong.’ ” — Joel 3:10
As the darkness of militarism and tribal nationalism permeates the earth with its vicious presence, an acceleration towards massive military build up is on the way.
In the ongoing trends towards militarism, what we can see is that the 2020s is a decade projected by governments to be one of major military innovation. What this means is that major war is on the way.
“Prepare for war!
Wake up the mighty men,
Let all the men of war draw near,
Let them come up.” (Joel 3:9)
From what we have been reading, governments such as China, Germany, Japan, Turkey and Greece project the mid and late 2020s to be years of significant military buildup in weapons technology. There is one year that consistently pops up, and that is 2027. Let us look at some of the plans of regional powers and get an idea of what to expect as to the continual trend of militarism.
The Chinese military has planned that by the year 2027 China will reach a state of military advancement to win wars. 2027 will be the 100th anniversary for the establishment of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and so the country projects a powerful military machine by this year. What is very interesting is that initially Xi Jinping had the goal of making this date 2049 by which time he envisioned China would “build a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious.” But this goal was brought to the earlier date of 2035 which is a long time from now. So it appears that the shift to the year 2027 as the projected point for a stronger and more advanced military is more of a realistic expectation. What does China plan for the year 2027 as far its military goes? Katsuji Nakazawa, writing for Nikkei, answers this question:
“What kind of military advancement does China envision by 2027?
The Ministry of National Defense seems to be unsatisfied with the current status of the military. The ministry has said that while China’s economy has become the world’s second-biggest, its military is not commensurate to the nation’s economic power.
With the 100th anniversary in sight, Xi is planning a new strategy.
Attending a military training meeting of the Central Military Commission on Nov. 25, Xi ordered the armed forces to strengthen training under real combat conditions and raise their capability of winning wars.”
China has a “Five Year Plan” from 2021 to 2025, one of the priorities of which is “elevating the level of national security.” According to Dean Cheng, the purpose of this five year plan is so that “the PLA will be fully mechanized and informationized by 2027.”
The European Union is planning to draw out a document on its future goals for defense which includes the development of tanks. With this plan the EU — in the words of Reuters — “wants to become a stand-alone military power in the long term” and to be “strong enough to fight on its own”. The EU plans on delivering the final document for this plan by the year 2022. “We need to build a compass. This is a common way of looking at the world, of defining threats and addressing them together,” said a senior EU official.
One of the main voices in favor for the EU to become a major global military machine is Werner Weidenfeld, who has been an advisor for numerous German chancellors, including Helmut Kohl in the late 80s and 90s. In an article on October of 2020, for the German newspaper, Welt, Weidenfeld speaks of the EU’s trillion euro covid recovery plan and overall budget, on how the countries of the Bloc “agreed on their seven-year budget and a Corona recovery plan”. A seven year aim implies that this budget and covid recovery plan will continue up to 2027. Weidenfeld wants the EU to take advantage of these funds to boost its military capabilities and become a world superpower. “The EU must use the enormous financial resources wisely” writes Weidenfeld. “And for this the European project finally needs a strategy.” He speaks of the EU as being “the third strongest economic power in the world” even without Great Britain and that “Europe has become strong and big and has the potential to become a world power”. Weidenfeld believes that the high population of the EU and its “economic potential” and the EU’s “solid military equipment” promotes “the EU to the rank of world power.” Weidenfeld then goes on to argue that the EU has the capacity to assert itself against other world powers, including the Unites States itself:
“Due to its economic power, Europe should set standards in the digitized and globalized multipolar world and trust itself to assert these standards not only against the USA, China and Russia, but also against India, Japan and Brazil.”
The European Union, according to Weidenfeld, must form “a European army” in order for it to become a global power that can vie with other powerful countries. The Germans have believed for years that the post-War order of the American global hegemony is soon going to decline. It is in this projected decline of America’s dominance that the Germans have foreseen as an opportunity for their resurrection as a global power. This was reflected years ago in 2007 when Weidenfeld wrote that:
“The United States’ unipolar moment is passing. With the rise of China and India, the future multipolar world order is taking shape. In this situation, two central challenges arise: On the one hand, a new balance between the old and new great powers must be found.”
For Weidenfeld, it is the European Union that must bring to fruition this “new balance” in the world order, and this will be done through the creation of a pan-European military force:
“The creation of a European army would bring the states of Europe closer together in terms of security policy than ever before. The interlocking of security and defense policy would increase the pressure on the EU states to develop a common European culture of strategic thinking and planning not only from a regional but also from a global perspective.”
The dream of a military with the capacity for war is being expressed by the German army’s highest office. Alfons Mais, a Lieutenant General of the Bundeswehr and the Army Inspector, the highest military superior of the Army Branch of the German Armed Forces, declared in a speech in November of 2020 that German troops must be “assertive, ready for war and capable of winning”. This speech was said as the European Union is undergoing a policy of military strength. To quote Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the EU’s foreign policy: “the European Union has to learn to use the language of power”. And what might this language be? Josep explained: “We should reinforce the euro international role and further our military capacity to act.” A pan-European military force would only undermine NATO’s role in Europe’s protection, thus ending America’s unipolar world and beginning a new era of European — or really Germanic — dominion over the continent. Geoffrey Van Orden, a British MP and former Army officer, objected in September of 2019 to the plan of a pan-European military, affirming that it would kick out the United States from Europe’s defense affairs and would appeal to the political forces that desire to sever Europe from American hegemony:
“Europe’s primary strategic concern should be to ensure that the United States remains fully committed to its security, not to establish separate defence structures which deliberately exclude the United States. ….This plays into the hands of those that wish to see Europe separated from its transatlantic allies.”
On November of 2020, Germany’s Minister of Defense, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, made a keynote speech in which she spoke of new technologies for the German military, including a new drone called the “eurodrone”:
“in the current budget negotiations we already managed to agree on providing some projects with a financial perspective for the medium term: the Eurofighter; the NH 90 helicopter; and the eurodrone.”
Kramp-Karrenbauer then states that the development of these technologies “promotes European independence, industrial capabilities and technology”. The term that is key here is “European independence” for it denotes a desire to no longer need America when it comes to security; it also signifies that when these German officials speak of “Europe” they most certainly do so with a focus specifically on Germany, since it is indeed Germany that is the powerhouse of the European Union and the most powerful economy within the Bloc. Moreover, the eurodrone that the Defense Minister spoke of is planned to be operational by the year 2027. According to a September, 2020 report from Geospatial World: “If it is successful this year, the first Eurodrone system would be delivered to Germany in 2027, and to France in 2028.”
The plan to be militarily independent is being done amidst a growing mistrust for the United States by Germany. Kramp-Karrenbauer expressed this mistrust when she said in the same speech:
“Our security, our prosperity, our peaceful coexistence is coming up against some very real threats. What is more, we are facing profound uncertainties within NATO and the European Union as well right now: How reliable is the United States of America? … How strong is Germany’s resolve? Will we Europeans be able to rely on each other when push comes to shove?”
The fact that Germany is expressing doubt in the decades long policy of relying on America for security is very worrisome, given that the US government itself knows that once Germany mistrusts the US it will shift towards a plan to produce nuclear weapons. This was made known in a report addressed to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the United States Senate in 2008, entitled: Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East, in which it says:
“In the cases of Germany and Japan, both countries can easily obtain nuclear weapons but have chosen not to because of their integration beneath a NATO (Germany) or an American (Japan) security umbrella. Today, all of these countries have the technical capacity to obtain nuclear weapons in a matter of months or a few short years. … If these countries ever begin to question the reliability of this security umbrella, they would almost certainly reassess past nuclear weapons decisions.”
The Greeks want to have an upgraded F16 jet fighter, and it is expected to be operational in 2027. As we read on DW:
“The Greek government signed a deal to pay $279.7 million (€250 million) to Lockheed Martin Corporation to modernize and enhance scores of US-made F-16 fighter jets operated by the Greek air force, the country’s Athens Macedonian News Agency reported on Friday.
The two sides signed the deal this week after finalizing details on Lockheed’s use of a Greek subcontractor.
Greece boasts a fleet of some 150 F-16 fighters. Earlier this month, Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos told the parliament that 84 of them would be upgraded to the advanced Viper class by 2027.”
Greece’s biggest enemy — Turkey — is working on its own indigenously engineered aircraft fighter the engines of which are to complete testing on 2027, as we read in the Daily Sabah:
“Turkey’s TF-X National Combat Aircraft (MMU) – a joint project by the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) and Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) – is preparing for a maiden flight using a domestic engine in 2029.
Work to develop the engine continues at full speed, in cooperation with related institutions, according to Osman Dur, general manager of TR Engine, a new research and development (R&D) center for turboshaft engines.
He said some 80 engineers are working in the national fighter jet’s domestic engine project, in cooperation with the Turkish Air Forces Command.
“The engine tests are set to be completed by 2026 or 2027. The MMU’s maiden flight with a domestic engine will take place in 2029,” he added.”
The Japanese are also making their own fighter jet — the F3 —; it is going to be based on the Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin and it is planned to be ready by 2027. According to Defense Industry Daily:
“The Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin was recently photographed while out for its first taxi test at Nagoya airport. After its unveiling to the public just last month, a maiden flight for the stealth demonstrator, formally known as the ATD-X, is just weeks away, bar any upcoming technical problems. The Shinshin, which means “spirit of the heart,” is Japan’s first foray into developing experimental stealth technologies and will form the basis for its fifth generation F-3 fighters planned for 2027.”
At the heart of this project is the pursuit to be independent from American power. As long as the United States determines the security of Japan, the US continues to be the dominating power of the Pacific. But, if the US loses its position as the source for Japan’s defense, then the US will lose its ability to contain Japan. The American-Japanese security understanding (in the words of James Fallows) “prevents Japan from building as large an army as it would need on its own,” and “leaves the United States as the reigning power in the Pacific”. The ability to contain Japan secures American foreign policy in the far northeast of Asia, as Fallows writes: “Unless Japan is contained, therefore, several things that matter to America will be jeopardized: America’s own authority to carry out its foreign policy and advance its ideals”.
While Lockheed Martin will have some participation in the design of this jet— providing technical support to Mitsubishi for airframe design and systems integration — Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is going to be leading in its creation alongside a thousand other Japanese companies. The move to make domestic fighter jets is a reflection of an ongoing trend of world powers. Forbes Magazine has observed that in just a few years “Berlin/Paris, London and Tokyo have all tangibly committed to development of a domestic stealth jet despite predictions that enormous price tags ($40+ billion) would dissuade them.” And the reason for this? as the same Forbes article states: “expensive domestic development of such fighters is required to retain an independent military aviation industrial base, lest these countries become dependent on the U.S. companies and to the whims of Washington.” In other words, powerful and wealthy countries like Japan and Germany are tired of being ruled by the United States. There is undoubtedly a revolution taking place against the American empire.
If this revolt is successful, then the world will shift from being under an American hegemony to a multipolar world wherein a cluster of countries will be the most powerful nations. These new powers will pursue empire, and considering the histories of some of these countries — Turkey, Germany and Japan — this will not lead to anything good, but a vicious torrent of destruction. What we can see from reading on the plans of the countries above is that in the 2020s we will witness the transitioning towards a pre-world war political atmosphere. But, we still hold that glimmer of hope from eternal truth, that mankind soon shall banish war.
“They shall beat their swords into plowshares,
And their spears into pruning hooks;
Nation shall not lift up sword against nation,
Neither shall they learn war anymore.” (Isaiah 2:4)