Some of my observations on the current conflict:
NOTES FOR THE VIDEO:
But Ukraine is finding it harder to make gains in the south where they’re more exposed, having to fight in mostly open countryside. An advancing army needs more troops and firepower to overcome a defending army.
The danger for Ukraine may now be similar to the one Russia faced in the early stages of the war. Trying to advance on multiple fronts can prove costly – in terms of ammunition, equipment, and troops. The bigger the gains the longer the supply lines – which can then be targeted by a defender. There’s also the risk that those forces that have advanced furthest – creating a bulge in the defensive line – could become surrounded.
Despite the optimism, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has warned that Ukraine’s forces in the east could now be more vulnerable to a Russian counter-attack. Seizing territory is not enough. An army has to hold the ground too. That might prove easier if the local population are behind you.
Ukraine’s double-pronged offensive is still risky. It could easily suffer setbacks. But this is much more than simply seizing back land – even if that is the ultimate goal.
According to the former head of intelligence of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation, Rustem Khlupov, the Russian army will certainly launch a counter-strike. And it will be a blow “with a sideways approach to the liver” – not where the Armed Forces of Ukraine previously stopped. He said:
“We will launch our counterattack, that’s for sure. But I think not in the places where Ukrainian counterattacks were carried out. Because it makes no sense to hit where their main forces are concentrated. It is necessary in a boxing way – with a call to the side, strike at the liver. A blow to the liver can also put the opponent on his knee. It depends on the genius of our generals.”
The Russian Armed Forces are defending in the Izyum direction, powerful Russian missiles are hitting the enemy, and the Ukrainian regions adjacent to the Kharkov direction are so crowded with wounded soldiers that the APU-shnikov are being taken to Kyiv… the Russian fighters hold the line and give a tough rebuff to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Regional hospitals close to the Kharkiv direction are so overcrowded with wounded soldiers that they are taken to Kyiv. Videos of ambulances rushing through the capital of Ukraine appeared on social networks.