In a recent story, Russia announced that she is ready to “integrate” Belarus further into Russia:
Russia is ready to further deepen integration with Belarus. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev believes that the Kremlin is ready to create a common emission center, a common court and other bodies.
“I want to emphasize: Russia is ready to continue to move along the path of building the Union State, including the creation of a single emission center, a single customs service, a court, and a chamber of accounts in the manner prescribed by the agreement on the creation of the Union State of December 8, 1999,” Dmitry Medvedev said.
But Minsk believes that the time for such integration has not come. Moreover, according to the Prime Minister of Belarus Syarhei Rumas, the parties are very slowly moving towards solving problems that have a negative effect on integration, Interfax reports.
“Mutual trade was and is the main indicator of bilateral relations. Unfortunately, in 2018, the imbalance in the goods trade between Belarus and Russia is increasing, based on the statistics from 10 months of 2018, the negative balance of mutual trade increased by 3.3 billion US dollars, ”said Rumas.
In years past, President Putin of Russia was famous for making “manly” photo ops before the world. Whether it was him riding on a bear galloping through a river, going for a swim and then “suddenly” retrieving “ancient artifacts” he found at the bottom of the lake, or doing things such as fishing and horseback riding shirtless before going to church, Putin was presented at the “chad” to the “virgin” Obama during the years of the Obama presidency and before.
But a major change has happened, as these photo ops are no longer in existence. Instead, in one of Putin’s most recent appearances, he appeared to be scared at a meeting with neocon terrorist supporter John Bolton, who Trump has placed in charge of during his administration the continuation of the American anti-Russia plans that have been in existence for decades.
Putin has every right to be concerned because Russia is surrounded on all sides and is suffering gravely from internal decline. You can read our archives about Russia’s problems, which I have recounted in great detail (just look up “Decline of Russia” for starters and “Jamestown institute”), but the short answer is that Russia has a big country with lots of territory, not enough people to fill it, no economy except selling weapons or raw materials, a ruling population that is sick and committing suicide through drug abuse, AIDS, abortion, and no family structure, and a large minority Turkic population that could potentially seize control over much of Russia’s land and destroy what power she has, and at the same time she is encircled by Germany, Japan, Turkey, and the US, which she knows could destroy her if they wanted to and are making clear they desire to control her.
There is no good answer to Russia’s situation. However, the basic approach she has to have to survive is to keep peace in her borders and with her neighboring nations as much as possible, while continuing to create “buffers” between herself and her enemies. This is where Belarus, and really all of Eastern Europe comes in.
Eastern Europe is known collectively as the “Bloodlands” because it is for the most part (with the exception of the Carpathian mountains) a giant plain between Germany and Russia. Both nations are historical enemies who want to demonstrate nothing less than what is often times pompous domination over each other- there are economic and power concerns, but most of the fighting is not necessary and leads to a tremendous loss of life in the name of pride and arrogance. Eastern Europe, because of its geographic location, is forced into conflict and many times, to choosing “sides” when both sides hate them and will even ally to destroy them.
The nation most affected by this is Poland, which has been ripped apart repeatedly by mutual agreements between Germany and Russia for centuries and then when said agreements fall apart as they historically do, her people are then slaughtered in the cross fire between the nations fighting with each other. Belarus and Ukraine have historical associations with Russia and will lean to Russia, although Ukraine has a large amount of pro-German support. Czechia and Slovakia along with all of the Baltic nations have a historical Germanian presence and will lean towards Germany.
Belarus and Poland, like all of the nations behind the “Iron Curtain,” were technically “independent” nations yet were integrated so closely with the USSR they were effectively one in the name nation. Following the breakup of the USSR and the liberation of the nations of Eastern Europe, and in light of the anti-Russia program of Operation Gladio, Poland and all of the nations of Eastern Europe were faced with an interesting choice, that is to say, it was the inevitability of a future occupation and possible colonization, but the question being the choice of who to be colonized by.
The two major powers in world in 1991 were and still are the US and Russia. The question became not IF there would be a conflict between Germany who has since World War II been a veritable satellite of the US) and Russia, but when. Such a conflict happens almost every century, and Poland knows that like before, she is going to be overrun and destroyed. Therefore, it is in her interest to, like Russia, create a buffer zone between herself and Russia as much as possible while also allowing herself to develop economically speaking so she could prosper as she did in the past. Poland is a unique case because as mentioned above, Eastern Europe tends to divide on certain historical lines, with the Baltic nations, Czechia, and Slovakia going to the Germany sphere of influence while Belarus and Ukraine go the Russian sphere. Poland, as she is hated by both, had to choose between a “rock and a hard place”.
However, since she was forced to make a choice if she wanted to avoid being forced by association to be with either side, she chose Germany for the simple reason that while she would be under US dominion, she could use the economic and military power of the US to act as a shield against the Russians. This would not mean that she would not potentially be destroyed any less than before, but it was a logical wager to lessen the destruction that she naturally was going to incur. This is evidenced by the US installation of a permanent and major military installation in Olsztyn, Poland, on the Russian border with Kaliningrad, or historical German Königsberg from the 12th century until the Soviet annexation in 1945 after World War II.
Belarus was placed into a similar position as Poland, except she chose alliance with Russia because of her historical associations with her. In the 27 years as of 2018 since the breakup of the USSR, the differences between Poland and Belarus are staggering. While Poland is having some difficulty with social issue such as it pertains to population decline, the LGBT, and variants of nationalism, Poland has, proportionally speaking, maintained herself and grown economically speaking tremendously and is well-balanced considering her size and location|. Belarus, by contrast, has been ruled by the dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, and her economy is almost entirely dependent on Russia and closely reflects the “strip mine/raw materials” model called the “economy” of Russia.
Poland is doing well. Belarus is not. As far as a “gamble” goes, so far Poland has emerged and continues to remain the clear winner because she has been able to recover, grow, and make something of herself while Russia and to a large extent, those in her influence have not. I say this not as an “insult” to either nation, but an observation of a simple fact that is painfully obvious for all to see.
Belarus has obviously taken note of this, and just as with people in life, they naturally want what Poland has and, as some allege, regret their associations with Russia.
Now take the story note above about Russia integrating Belarus. She wants to integrate Belarus because just at Germany is attempting to re-assert her old empire, now with US backing, Russia wants to do the same for her protection. Belarus is historically in her sphere, and she is not attempting to take control over her. However, centuries of history and the lessons of the last three decades are clear for Belarus that not only is a conflict going to come and she will be affected, but that at least in modern times, the “winning side” is not going to be with Russia. In response, Lukashenko clarified by saying that Belarus has “never” been a part of Russia and will never be a part of Russia:
Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka says his country will never be part of the Russian Federation.
Speaking to Russian journalists in Minsk on December 14, Lukashenka said that “sovereignty is sacred” for Belarus.
“If someone wants to break [Belarus] into regions and force us to become a subject of Russia, that will never happen,” Lukashenka said.
Lukashenka accused Moscow of attempting “to incorporate” Belarus into Russia using oil and gas leverage.
“I understand the hints [by Moscow] saying, ‘OK, take our oil but for that destroy your statehood and become part of Russia’… It is useless to blackmail Belarus, to bend it, [to choke us],” Lukashenka said.
Lukashenka also criticized Russian media for presenting Ukraine’s pro-Western leadership as enemies.
“I know Ukrainians. They are not enemies. They are not as bad as you present them on your [television] channels. It is time to stop doing that. Nobody [believes] that anymore,” Lukashenka said.
Belarus and Russia are joined in a Union State that exists mainly on paper, and their militaries have close ties — though Lukashenka has resisted Russian efforts to beef up its military presence in Belarus, which lies between Russia and NATO countries.
Belarus is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EES) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), regional groupings that observers say Russian President Vladimir Putin uses in an effort bolster Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet Union and counter the EU and NATO.
Wariness about Moscow’s intentions toward its neighbors has risen since Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and began supporting Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, where the ensuing war has killed more than 10,300 people. (source, source)
In other words, this is his “reach out” to Germany and the US. His declaration of independence is a rejection of Russia’s attempts and a sign he wants to connect with Western Europe.
It is not that Russia could not “take” Belarus if she wanted to. It is that Belarus, while a historical ally with some conflict with Russia, has now formally rejected her influence and wants to join with her enemies. She is now in a similar status with the Caucasian nation of Georgia, a historical Russian ally who defected following the fall of the USSR to NATO and been with NATO ever since, as well as Azerbaijan, who submitted herself to Turkey and by extension Germany and the US.
This comes at a time when pan-Turanism, something that was fomented by the UK and continued as a part of Operation Gladio, is being aggressively promoted in Central Asia and Siberia. This has eroded Russia’s historical influence in Central Asia, and in combination with the massive migrations from Central Asia taking place to Russia now that has generated considerable xenophobia from the Russian population, certainly aggravates Russia’s situation.
Likewise, Russia recently declared that she is going to open a military base in the Caribbean off the coast of Venezuela:
Moscow is gearing up to establish a long-term military presence in Latin America and the current mission of the Tu-160 strategic bombers to Venezuela is part of this plan, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to military envoys, Russian authorities have made a decision (and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro did not object) to deploy strategic aircraft to one of Venezuela’s islands in the Caribbean Sea, which has a naval base and a military airfield. Ten years ago, Russian experts and Armed Forces commanders had already visited the island of La Orchila, located 200 kilometers northeast of Caracas. Venezuelan laws prohibit the setup of military bases in the country, but a temporary deployment of warplanes is possible.
“It is the right idea to include Venezuela in long-range aviation missions,” military expert Colonel Shamil Gareyev told the newspaper, adding that it was also economically reasonable. “Our strategic bombers will not only not have to return to Russia every time, but also won’t perform aerial refueling while on a patrol mission in the Americas. Our Tu-160 aircraft arrive to their base in Venezuela, conduct flights, execute their missions and are then replaced on a rotating basis. This is how it should be done,” he said.
Colonel Eduard Rodyukov, a Corresponding Member of the Academy of Military Sciences, in turn, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that “the arrival of Russia’s Tu-160 strategic bombers to Central America is kind of a signal to Trump to make him realize that abandoning nuclear disarmament treaties will have a boomerang effect.”
According to Kommersant’s sources in Russian military management agencies, the Russian-Venezuelan agreement on the flight of two Tu-160 strategic bombers is mutually beneficial, since Caracas got a chance to exhibit its independent military policy and Russian pilots performed not just a simple training flight but covered a distance of more than 10,000 kilometers over the Atlantic Ocean, the Barents, the Norwegian and the Caribbean Seas.
We are clearly helping the Venezuelan government stay afloat, Research Fellow at the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Emil Dabagyan told Kommersant. “Since Russia benefits from oil exploration, it wants the Venezuelan regime to stay in place,” he added. As for Caracas, joint military drills with Russia and other activities of this kind are very important for it at the moment. According to the expert, Venezuelan authorities “seek to show their determination to protect the country from the potential aggression of the United States, who has been labeling the Maduro regime as illegitimate.” (source, source)
Now some may be concerned about this, but how much concern is there? It is not as though the US does not have a tremendous military presence in the Caribbean, Central America, and South America, as well as all the Gulf of Mexico. Plus, there is the logistical question of getting Russian troops to Venezuela, which while they have the capacity to do so, the networks, time, and investment required would be so much more difficult than anything the USA would have to do, and as a result would likely be more of a risk than worth the effort. Therefore, the purpose of such as base is less for a MILITARY INVASION OF AMERICA, but about making a “presence” to try and scare people because Russia is the one who is actually scared.
Part of the US strategy has been to isolate Russia from the rest of the world, including her own allies. This process is steadily taking place, from everything including economic isolation to spiritual isolation with the split in the Orthodox Churches, to the threats of war with Serbia, Russia’s only ally in the Balkan peninsula. The very prospect of war between Serbia, backed the tiny nation of Montenegro and by proxy through Russia, against her neighbors of Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, and Croatia, along with the proxy support of NATO, means that not only is any “victory” highly unlikely for the Serbs, but that it may represent a modern manifestation of the Second Balkan war (the First Balkan War being represented by the Balkan conflict in 1994) that happened before the start of World War I.
This is another reason why one must focus on Central Asia, and not think of China so much as an “ally” of Russia. Russia is afraid that China will take her resources by force and will sell them to the Chinese at below market value to keep her pacified. Central Asia has increasingly turned to the “west” since the fall of the USSR and that trend has continued in all of the nations, even in Russia’s strongest Central Asian ally in the small nation of Kyrgyzstan.
Russia historically is symbolized as a great and powerful bear in national and folk lore. However, the great bear now finds herself surrounded and being closed in on by a group of ruthless hunters who wish to make a fur coat from her pelt. Like any scared animal, she is beginning to act out in ways to show strength but with increasingly less effectiveness and sometimes erratic behavior.
What the future holds in store is to be seen. However, there is a consistent theme based on the words of major political leaders that strongly suggest a major escalation leading to war, and possibly a war itself, is likely between 2023 and 2028. This trend of isolating, demoralizing, and dividing Russia must be expected to continue, because it is critical to the end goal of a war not over economics, but ideology out of which from the ashes of national fervor a new globalism will, as historically in the past it happens, emerge once again.
World War I destroyed the old empires of Europe and most of the remnants of Christian civilization. World War II finished them off and established a dictatorship of secularism and the self. As such, it only makes sense that World War III would not even so much be about destruction, but about the birth of a new order that in the light of the rise of paganism would be a full return to the very past state of the world which Christ came into to save man from.