Former Vice President Joe Biden appears to be emerging as the Democrat choice for the 2020 election. While not determined yet, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows him to be at a 13 point lead overall against Trump, potentially putting him in a “landslide” victory in the 2020 election:
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 13 points nationally, according to the latest Quinnipiac University survey.
In a national head-to-head matchup, the poll found Biden taking 53 percent against 40 percent for Trump, with the poll’s assistant director describing it as a “landslide” margin.
Five other Democratic contenders also lead the president: Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) hold healthy leads over Trump, with Sanders up by 9 points, Harris ahead by 8 and Warren leading by 7.
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) lead Trump by 5 points, with each posting a 47 to 42 split.
“It’s a long 17 months to Election Day, but Joe Biden is ahead by landslide proportions,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Biden’s double-digit lead over Trump is largely driven by the gender gap. The former vice president edges Trump 47 percent to 46 among men. But among women, Biden leads by 26 points, 60 to 34.
Similarly, white voters are split evenly between the two, with Trump at 47 percent and Biden at 46. But Biden leads 85 to 12 among black voters and 58 to 33 among Hispanics.
Both candidates surpass 90 percent support from within their own parties, but independents break for Biden by a 58 to 28 margin.
National polls are not necessarily the best indicator for a general election, which will be fought in a handful of swing states.
In 2020, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be the primary battlegrounds.
Trump became the first GOP nominee since 1988 to win those three states. If the rest of the 2016 map stays the same but Democrats are able to win those back, they’ll win the Electoral College.
And the Quinnipiac survey has some good news for Trump, finding that his job approval is on the rise.
“The Trump bump to 42 percent job approval is nothing to sniff at,” said Malloy. “It’s one point shy of the best Quinnipiac University survey number ever for President Trump.”
Trump’s job approval is boosted by voter optimism about the economy.
Seventy percent of Americans described the economy as “excellent” or “good.” And 77 percent said their own personal financial situation is “excellent” or “good,” which is close to the all-time high of 78 percent recorded in April of 2018.
Still, only 41 percent of voters said Trump deserves credit for the economy.
“A very sturdy economy and folks with money in the bank. That’s the magic combo the White House hopes to ride to reelection and those numbers remain solid,” Malloy said. “But Trump does not get that much credit.”
The Quinnipiac survey of the Democratic primary field finds Biden’s support dipping slightly, from 35 percent in the May survey to 30 percent presently. Biden reached as high as 38 percent support in the poll shortly after launching his bid in late March.
But Biden still has a double-digit lead over Sanders, the next closest contender, at 19 percent. Warren, who has been on the rise, comes in at 15 percent, up 2 points from May.
Buttigieg is at 8 percent, up 3 points from last month, followed by Harris at 7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University survey of 1,214 voters nationwide was conducted from June 6 to June 10 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. The survey of 503 Democrats has a 5.4 percentage point margin of error. (source, source)
I predicted before that assuming the current political conditions, that Trump would likely win in a contest because the Democrats have put forth no serious contender and did not seem to make any efforts to do so.
This may be changing.
It is still very early in the election, and I do not want to assume anything. However, the anger at Trump is very real because, as I have stated before and will continue to emphasize, he was handed a “golden opportunity” to make some serious differences in the nation, and instead chose not only to follow the current line, but to follow it with more devotion that did the previous presidents.
It is an uncomfortable fact to discuss for many, but it must be said again- Obama gave many, many gun rights to the public. Trump has taken gun rights away. This cannot be disputed, whether or not one likes Obama.
The Trump presidency has been defined by (a) a return to a more hawkish neo-con stance than even under Bush II, and (b) Jared Kushner’s actions, not by anything related to “making America great again” save for select financial and industrial interests who have no care for the good will of the public save for how they can be farmed and exploited.
It will be interesting to see how future polls develop.