China is dependent on US food, and without the US, China starves. In an interesting series of tweets, the editor in Chief of a major Chinese newspaper is now taunting US farmers who have not been able to sell their crops to China because the government is refusing to buy them in a game of geopolitics.
Following his earlier threat that “China wants a deal but is prepared for the worst-case scenario, a prolonged trade war”, uttered shortly after the Senate vote to support Hong Kong protesters and Trump’s warning that the US could raise tariffs further if there is no deal, the editor in chief is out with a new taunt, this time addressing US farmers with a “friendly reminder” not to “rush to buy more land or get bigger tractors. Wait until a China-US trade deal is truly signed and still valid six months after. It’s safer by then.”
On the other hand, Hu’s tweets also betray China’s growing nervousness.
While Beijing may have thought it had full control over the future of trade war and the “Phase 1” deal all wrapped up back at the start of October, when it also assumed that the upcoming Trump impeachment process would give it all the leverage it needed to pass through a photo-op of a “deal” with no enforcement provisions (while also buying Trump’s welcome silence over the ongoing Hong Kong protests) recent developments have once again sent the shaky equilibrium into a tailspin, especially now that Beijing is contemplating how to respond to the Senate’s unanimous passage of a bill that sides with Hong Kong protesters.
Indeed, as Bloomberg notes this morning, President Xi Jinping’s government has a problem: “Any strong measures against the U.S. also risk backfiring on China. That’s particularly dangerous as he struggles to contain escalating violence in Hong Kong and negotiates a trade pact with the U.S. all while the economy grows at its slowest pace in decades.”
“It’s worth noting that the U.S. can do more damage to China than China can do to the U.S.,” said Shi Yinhong, an adviser to China’s cabinet and professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.
The bill also threatens to derail the talks on the infamous “phase one” trade deal that are entering their final stages. Stocks in Europe and Asia fell along with American equity-index futures on Wednesday on concerns it could lead to further delays. (source)
Now I must be clear, I do not want a famine in China because I do not want the death of these people as I do not want it for anybody, as this would mean largely the willful murder of the innocent, and this is a horrendous sin as well as it is something I would not desire for myself. That said, the more that China makes statements like this, the greater a chance there is there will be a famine in China’s future.
China can say whatever she wants, but the nation is unable to feed her own people because of the endemic corruption of Chinese society that dates back to Confucian times and is well-known to those who have lived in or study Chinese history, for while corruption is common to all societies, China is arguably run by corruption to such a point that it is indistinguishable from Sinicization itself. One can see this in the “corporate relations” between China and the US or any other nation, as China is not terribly good at creating, but rather prefers to steal or cheat and then claim victory while possibly making minor innovations.
China right now is bragging about the suffering of US farmers. All nations tend to do things like this, but in different forms. However, in true Chinese fashion, it is being done with open arrogance and disregard for people who are losing their lives due to agricultural policies being manipulated by ultimately the US for geopolitical gain, for it is China to is absolutely dependent on US imports and cannot survive without this, and which you can read more about in the Shoebat archives.
The US can suffer crop and livestock losses without serious hunger. Indeed, it would mean higher prices, a contraction in the restaurant industry, and some anger, but it would not destroy the government, as Americans are very well fed. The Chinese are not so, for even a tiny shock to the system could topple the government and the elites of China- those in the highest echelons of the Communist Party -know this well.
China is attempting to “boast” herself in the world as a part of psychological manipulation against the US in the same way that Russia makes threats. While the Russians (and Slavic people at large) are terrible liars, they are very good at bluffing, the difference being that the former is attempting to outright hide something, while the latter does not necessarily propose and outright lie but just gives the impression of ambiguity so that one does not fully know what one is doing, the Chinese can neither lie nor bluff at all, but just given the impression of being a terrible liar or a perverted sadist to the onlookers. While being caught in one’s lies does not necessarily make a person hate another, acting like a sadist always has this effect regardless of who it is.
Yet while China is doing this, she needs US food, and while she has expanded her influence into Burma/Myanma, Laos, and Vietnam to the point of risking conflict with India, China is also putting herself into a position of weakness because while many people know that she is weak already in power, taking a sadistic attitude towards it only makes people angry and so inclines them to hurt China just to show that they are able to do so and get away with it.
Expect further food shocks, “swine” or “chicken” flu epidemics, and even weather-related crop failures that will just happen to drive up the cost of food that goes to China. If anything, one might want to consider looking into shorting agricultural futures in the coming years because the more that China taunts, especially as the US continues to remilitarize, it is only for the US to decide to help any of the above events to “happen” so that China is plunged into social turmoil and then is forced into a position of submission, for hungry people and soldiers do not make for social peace or national unity, and certainly not a desire to fight and die for a nationalist cause.
US farmers might want to hold off on buying lots of seed, or trusting in their own government, but to save and make their ends meet by whatever methods they are able to, for they will be hurt in the process too. However, the best protection they can have is to know that they are also pawns in a game of geopolitics, and that as long as they can pay their debts and care for themselves, they will be able to personally endure whatever changes will come that lead on the road to war. If anything, fewer crops means a higher return for the farmers, as they can demand a higher asking price, and since China will need them, they will inevitably turn around and be forced to purchase, at which time they can then, to quote the editor from earlier, buy “new tractors” and with the additional monies to possibly even take a vacation as well.