By Walid Shoebat
After ISIS controlled the city of Ramadi, capital of Anbar in Iraq which is not far from the Jordanian border (only 93 miles) it became a major threat to the Kingdom of Jordan. This coupled with all the internal turmoil and civil unrest, Jordan’s destiny is to become as its sister in Syria.
An expert on jihadist movements Affairs Hassan Abu Haniya said that “fears and threats posed by ISIS for Jordan is real and is not simply an expected or a forecasted event. ISIS does not hide its intention to expand towards Jordan.”
To make the argument easier to understand as in ‘ISIS And Jordan For Dummies’, we posted the map on Left below is ‘ISIS in grey’ from last year, 2014. On the right below is ‘ISIS in grey’ so far this year. And below that is Jordan.
Abu Haniya saw that “the organization’s policy is based on the pillars of its rule in areas dominated by Iraq and the Levant, and then expansion and invasion of other regions and countries that are not controlled by ISIS.”
He pointed that “current concerns is the trade movement between Jordan and Iraq which has been affected after the control of ISIS of all border crossings,” noting that “geopolitical risk is coming in the second stage is no doubt.”
Jordanian government officials try to minimize the threat fearing the loss from outside investments. They say that Jordan is not a current target by ISIS, justifying that the concern of ISIS is to first arrange its cards and ranks to be able to install the pillars of its rule in areas dominated by Iraq and the Levant.
But the reality on the ground shows a much different picture. Jordan has a much larger problem than previously thought. Besides the threat of ISIS, Jordan is more concerned about the economic and social repercussions of the large refugee concentration on its territory. Some 680,000 Syrian refugees and some 30,000 Iraqi refugees fleeing ISIS, added to tens of thousands of refugees left over from the second Gulf war make up more than 10 percent of Jordan’s population — and that’s without even counting the 2,840,000 Palestinian refugees who count for 60% of Jordan’s population. Adding the Syrians (10%), Jordan becomes a nation that is 70% foreign. The Arab Spring that was supported by the West shifted the region in a way that while nations lose their population by fleeing the wars, such a population constitutes the main threat to other nations like Jordan’s delicate social and economic fabric.
In fact, the problem is the main reason why Jordan is leading the way to kick off Palestinian-Israeli peace process in hope to send Palestinian refugees to the West Bank.
But even these camps are infintessimal when compared to the 85 percent of the Syrian refugees in Jordan live in cities rather than in refugee camps who are taking over several fields and work places formerly held by Jordanians. International Labor Organization figures show that in Jordan’s three large cities, Amman, Irbid and Mafraq, the unemployment rate among Jordanians has risen from 14.5 percent to a whopping 22.1 percent. More than 30 percent of the Jordanians who worked in agriculture and construction have been replaced by Syrian refugees, who are willing to work longer hours for less money, with no social benefits.
And as if all this is not enough, investments in Jordan have dwindled dramatically. Smart investors are savvy as they read the writing on the wall. Investments in Jordan went down a whopping 50% from $3.1 billion to only $1.5 billion a year. But this dwindling began in 2006 and has been going on for the last four years, a loss of 6 billion to the Kingdom.
And as if all that is not enough, take the $1.25 billion promised by Saudi Arabia to help offset the cost of aiding the refugees, this only covers nearly half of what it costs Jordan which is $2.5 billion.
All this means less employment and heightened social tension. Providing the refugees with social services like medical clinics, garbage collection, running water and electricity is a heavy burden for Jordan, hindering the government’s ability to allocate funds for development or improve the wages of workers in the public sector.
In fact, the heightened tensions has already begun and sparked in the southern city Ma’an in full support of ISIS. For example, demonstrations were held against the police and security forces after the police killed a youngster. Security forces, which have taken a harsh line against any sign of disorder, acted with unprecedented brutality in Ma’an, whose residents have protested against the king in the past and where ISIS supporters raised the organization’s flag. Photographs on the Internet showed destroyed houses and injured civilians.
Recognizing the need to take urgent action to restore calm, King Abdullah immediately accepted the interior minister’s resignation and later fired the gendarmerie commander and general security commander. These dramatic measures against officials seen as the king’s associates were required in light of the threat of civil rebellion.
And it is here that we find the amazing precision of Bible prophecy predicting this Syrian immigration into Jordan; Aven is Damascus today and Damascus is also literally mentioned here by name. Besides Lebanon, Syrians are leaving by the droves into Jordan and precisely “unto Kir” which is Kir-Moab (Isaiah 15:1). Today that region is called Kerak (see Gesenius Lexicon).
When we review both the ancient map and the statistics of the recent influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan we find that over a half million Syrians already fled to “the borders of the land of Moab now called Kerrek. [Karak]”.
Shoebat.com has warned of this back in 2013 in our article Obama’s Reelection Simply Means More Power To Islamists: “Moreover, Syrian immigration to Jordan will pose a threat to the nation. According to U.N. figures, some 183,000 Syrian refugees have already settled in the country. These will be involved in causing a cultural shift, in which a desire for Sharia will be increased, and favor for the Muslim Brotherhood will grow larger.”
Meanwhile, the ISIS threat on Jordan is growing. “We’ve seen what happened in Iraq and Syria and we can’t count on the government’s ability to ensure the people’s safety if ISIS decides to turn right,” one Jordanian journalist said. That coupled with the support for ISIS in Jordan, the King’s fall becomes only a matter of time.