Russia and Ukraine recently met in Vienna over the status of gas pipelines through the nations in Vienna, and it was reported that the meeting went well.
Negotiations between Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy on gas transit in Vienna were successful, the parties continue to work. This was reported to the TASS correspondent by the executive director of the Ukrainian company Yuriy Vitrenko.
The main topic of today’s negotiations in Vienna was the extension of the contract for the transit of gas from Russia to Europe through Ukrainian territory after 2019, since the current ten-year agreement expires at the end of this year. Vitrenko said earlier that December 13 is the deadline for concluding a contract for the long-term reservation of transit capacities of the Ukrainian gas transmission system.
Previous bilateral talks took place on November 28 in Vienna. The Minister of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak, the Minister of Energy and Environmental Protection of Ukraine Alexey Orzhel, the Chairman of the Board of Gazprom Alexey Miller, the leaders of Naftogaz and the Operator of the Gas Transportation System of Ukraine took part in them. It was noted that the parties discussed Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in the gas sector, “the settlement of mutual claims for the execution of contracts, the conditions for the transit of Russian gas to Europe since 2020, the prospects for direct purchase of Russian gas for Ukrainian consumers.” (source)
This is a big deal for the US because just as how Ukraine is historically the “breadbasket of Europe”, she is also one of to major “pipelines” to Europe for oil.
There are several nations the border the Black Sea, but the two big ones that bring passage to Europe are Turkey and Ukraine. Turkey has been building oil pipelines for many years, such as the Turkstream project, and is as well as will continue to emerge as a major oil hub for the future.
The other major hub of oil to Europe currently is Russia by way of her holdings in the Volga basin. As it currently stands, many of those lines already come in by way of Ukraine or Belarus (instead of Poland, for political reasons), before making their way to Hungary or Slovakia, then the Czech Republic, and then Germany. Currently, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline proposes to run under the Baltic Sea from Russia directly to Germany. The oil which flows through these lines can come from any number of sources, including but not limited to the Caspian Sea/Volga Basin area, the Urals, the Arctic region, and many times as far away as Western Siberia near Kazakhstan or even all the way from Yakutia (Sakha), near Alaska. However, the most important of these are the Volga holdings because not only are they the most well-established, prolific, and easily accessible, but they are also the surest source of oil in a war, for it would be easy for an enemy to sabotage the other fields, but much harder for the Volga ones. As such, he who controls the Volga fields could easily control the future of Russia, including her conquest.
Right now, the US and Russia are locked in a geopolitical struggle, which has been going on since the days of the “Great Game” with the British and Russian Empires, for control over world power and resources. Russia is very weak and nearing collapse for many reasons- most of which are self-made such as the destruction of the family, disease, apathy, and people who are not ethnic Russians naturally reproducing and taking the place of “native” Russians -and the US is determined, as it is noted in the “Decline of Russia” Project, to exacerbate the already present situation to destroy her, as she is the greatest competitor to the US. Ukraine is the battlefield right now because it is about control over oil flows to Europe, and most importantly, to Germany, as the Teutonic nation is a militaristic powerhouse with a long history of war and violence, yet in order to wage war in a modern sense, one needs to have the raw materials to run the machines to make the tools for war. Since Germany has no serious oil fields, and she needs oil in order to reestablish her reich, Germany must buy it from somebody.
This is what the struggle is all about. If the US can control oil flow and keep it from Russian influence, she will likely ally with the US. If Russia can sell to her, then Germany and Russia may enter into a new Molotov-Ribbentrop type agreement for which the US could not fight both of them in a foreign war and win.
Ukraine historically has been the westernmost point of the great Empire that historically came out of Central Asia, as Halford Mackinder has noted in his works of geopolitics. While there are many “gateways”, Ukraine’s presence “on the border” (which is the literal meaning of “Ukraine”) giving passage between Europe and Asia by way of her flat lands that go around the Urals (just as Altai Krai in Russia, which sits on the border between Russia, Kazakhstan, and China served for migratory tribes between Central Asia, Siberia, and the lands of the Far East) puts her into a very contentious position.
Ukraine, like Poland, is caught between a rock and a hard place. She is being pulled right now in two different directions, and the tension is ripping her apart. She is being lobbied for and manipulated militarily by both the US and Russian governments, and Germany is watching the show to see which side she will benefit from.
Ukraine, however, should not be considered as a mere victim. While she does not really produce gas herself, her location as an alternative way to Turkey through which oil and gas flow to Europe places her in a natural and ideal position to earn a lot of money from fee collections.
When one says “Germany”, by the way, it is more correct to think in terms of “pan-Germanism”. Remember that Hitler was an Austrian, and he initially rose to power in Austria, and it was not “Austrian nationalism” per se that propelled, him but the historic call of “Germanic union” that goes throughout Europe which creates many of the conditions for war, and given that Germany and Russia are arguably the largest and most heavily concentrated places where Germanic people reside, it is out of their lands that one will naturally hear the calls and see the movements indicating political instability first.
In was reported in March 2019 that the current contracts between Naftogas Ukrainy (the Ukrainian gas company) and Gazprom (the Russian gas company) was set to expire this December 31st, 2019. Russia has already been “diversifying” away from Ukraine for a long time, such as with the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline as well as with talks to build (but no movement yet) a pipeline from Crimea under the Black Sea to Bulgaria before sending gas to Europe, and even working directly with the Turks on subsidizing parts of the Turkstream project.
Now the gas supplier is ready to discuss working conditions after 2019, but, according to Miller, there are no favorable offers. A tripartite meeting in the Russia-Ukraine-EU format should be held before the end of the month, at which Gazprom will discuss the terms of new gas supplies and may privately return to transit after 2019.
In parallel, the company will build two projects designed to reduce dependence on Ukrainian transit – Turkish Stream and Nord Stream-2. However, the monopoly has not yet agreed with European buyers on how they will take gas on new routes. In addition, by 2019, the monopoly may not have time to bring them to the planned capacity. (source)
Likewise, note that this meeting took place in Vienna, a city in the Germanic nation of Austria, and a hotbed of current Germanic nationalism that we and others have reported on.
Looking at this situation, one is left to wonder, what exactly is going on?
While one cannot be sure, and further reports will certainly clarify any speculations, is that this is part of the struggle taking place beneath the surface related to the US-Russia conflict.
Russia is shutting Ukraine out of gas. Ukraine is poor, and gets money from gas. She wants Russian money to keep her nation alive. However, many Ukrainians neither like nor trust Russia because Ukraine has a long history with her, such as with the creation of the Holodomor in the 20th century that murdered 8 to 12 million people by starvation due to the policies of Stalin, not to mention the forced relocation of many Ukrainians to the Gulag camps of Siberia and the Far East.
Russia can put on the image of “Christianity” all she wants, but remember that she is a master of bluffing, whereas the Americans will outright lie about Christianity in the context of serving political interests. Russia does not care about Christianity, except as a political lever, and Alexsandr Dugin is proof of this. Her neighbors know her well, we they do not trust her promises that she will not do the same again if she is afforded the chance.
As such, many in Ukraine have turned to the US. However, the Americans are just as manipulative, and they have their own interests and do not fundamentally care about the Ukrainians except as to how they can be used against the Russians. The US wants Ukraine to make certain decisions, such as opposing the Steinmeyer agreement and keeping up war against the two pseudo-republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (Luhansk) created by Russia in an attempt to Balkanize the area so to assert control and obstruct the flow of oil and transport from the Volga region.
What is Ukraine do to? Does she side with the Russians, make “peace” in eastern Ukraine, and in so doing possibly get more continual oil access from Russia while at the cost of making her a direct, absolute vassal under the thumb of the Kremlin again, knowing how Russia has historically looked down upon her and treated her, including with genocides for which she has not apologized? If she was to do this, she loses all independence not in a legal way, but matter-of-fact, as Russia will fly in and being to dictate to Ukraine what to do as though Ukraine was the slave of Russia- and as how Russia has treated her. But if she says with the Americans, she may lose the gas contracts, and more fighting means more deaths and violence, as well as social instability.
No matter what the case, Ukraine likely knows that just like Poland, she is probably going to be invaded again. It is not an accident that Poland has been inviting the US to build military bases on her soil and has worked so closely with her, because Poland knows that as the tides of history go, Germany and Russia will likely try to carve her up just like at the Partition Sejm in 1772 and with the Brest-Litovsk agreement in 1918. Poland’s actions should not be seen as “bowing” to the Americans, but as she will be forced to be ruled by somebody, to choose a different master in an attempt to jam or mitigate the intensity of the same historical impacts she has been forced to endure. This same logic is the likely explanation for Ukraine’s behavior, for knowing that she will probably be invaded, partitioned, and forced to submit to a master, the alliance with the US is an attempt to put “sand into the gears” of history, making hopefully better that which if left to natural circumstances would be a repeat of past disaster.
Ukraine will still play a major role in the transportation of gas. The question remains to be seen that following the expiration of said contract and the current struggle between the US and Russia with Germany monitoring the situation, how the political situation will effect the economic state of Ukraine, and if further political incidents will happen or become justifications for more economic adjustments. Germany does not really care how the gas comes to her, so long as she is guaranteed a consistent supply, and the one who gets her the most gas with the greatest security, something that partially depends upon changes to the political situation of Ukraine, will likely be her closest ally in the future.