I have repeatedly noted that most of the election is already decided. It only matters really in eight states what the outcomes are, and Trump is largely playing to them.
According to a new Gallup Poll reported on by way of Zero Hedge, a majority of Americans say they are better off under Trump than Obama.
…a majority of 56% of Americans feel that they are better off now under Donald Trump’s presidency than they were four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
The survey recorded the highest number of Americans in history saying that they feel in a better position 4 years into an incumbent’s presidency.
Given that in all but one of the examples above, where the number is much lower than 56%, the incumbent was re-elected, the findings bode very well for Trump.
While the majority is a good sign for Trump, the figure was even higher back in February, before the coronavirus pandemic. Back then, 61% expressed more satisfaction than they had four years previously.
Given the current circumstances, it is rather startling to find that more Americans think they are better off now, and betrays how effective Trump’s presidency has been thus far.
The only time an incumbent president has failed to be re-elected when seeking a second term since this question was first asked was H.W. Bush in 1992. The number of Americans more satisfied than four years previously in that instance was way down at 38%, nearly 20% less than has been recorded now.
The idea for the survey originates in a question Ronald Reagan asked Americans during his presidential campaign in 1980, ‘Are you better off today than you were four years ago?’(source)
Now there is a lot that could happen in this election. That said, the favor is still with Trump no matter what the polls are or even if he loses the popular vote by more than before (which is something that may happen), since it is the college that decides on his presidency.
However, the fact that Trump holds simple majority of people who are satisfied with him may be enough, in those important states, to give him the edge that he needs for victory.